JP Morgan Silver Forecast: The Commodities Research of JP Morgan changed their silver price forecast from $56.3/oz to $81/oz for the year 2026. That is a 44% change from their initial estimate. The forecast doesn’t comes as a surprise as Silver had crossed the $100 mark for the first time, in the previous month of January this year.
According to the report, “J.P. Morgan Global Research sees silver prices averaging $81/oz in 2026. This follows an eventful 2025 during which silver underwent a nearly 130% increase in value, starting the year at $29/oz and rising to over $70/oz by year’s end.”
WHAT IS MAKING THE PRICE OF SILVER GO UP ACCORDING TO JP MORGAN FORECAST?
A significant portion of that rally was linked to U.S. trade policy developments. The U.S. Commerce Department had been conducting a Section 232 review of critical minerals under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, a rule that permits the President to impose tariffs if imports are considered a national security risk.
The prolonged uncertainty weighed on markets until mid-January, when President Trump chose not to introduce fresh tariffs on critical minerals, including silver. Instead, the administration opted to pursue bilateral agreements to ensure supply security. Following this decision, silver initially declined but quickly recovered.
On January 30, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair triggered another sharp reaction. Silver prices fell 27%, accompanied by a 10% decline in gold.
While Warsh’s nomination and renewed strength in the U.S. dollar appear to have cooled excessive investor appetite for precious metals, underlying structural factors continue to pose supply-side challenges for silver.
One key constraint is that silver is predominantly produced as a byproduct of other metals, making output less responsive to price increases. Additionally, silver’s essential use in industrial applications—particularly in solar panel manufacturing—continues to underpin long-term demand.
IS SILVER PRICE A BUBBLE, READY TO BURST?
According to Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals strategy at JP Morgan, “long term, the largest risk we see for silver comes from more widespread adoption of silver-free technology, such as the cadmium telluride thin-film technology.” He was referring to an innovation that could potentially replace Silver in the Solar array.
He then further adds, “While a precious metal at its core, silver is still a very industrial metal, with industrial applications accounting for about 60% of total demand (excluding ETF flows). From a fundamental perspective, we believe the surge higher in silver has likely already set in motion a meaningful acceleration in substitution and thrifting trends, which will leave scar tissue on silver balances over the coming quarters.”
JP MORGAN FORECAST OUTLOOK
Gold benefits from more stable and diversified demand compared to silver, largely because its buyer base includes global central banks. These institutions accumulate gold to diversify away from U.S. dollar reserves, hedge against inflation, and hold a liquid asset with no counterparty risk. Silver lacks this structural layer of demand, which makes determining a fair price level more complex. As Shearer noted, without central banks acting as consistent dip buyers—as they do in gold—the gold-to-silver ratio could potentially widen again.
At the same time, the updated price projections reflect a sharply more bullish outlook for silver. The 2025 average has been revised slightly higher to $40.1/oz from $39/oz (+3%), but the most notable upgrades are for 2026. The full-year 2026 forecast has been raised to $81/oz from $56.3/oz — a 44% increase. Quarterly projections for 2026 have also been significantly revised upward, with Q1 at $84/oz (+55% from the prior estimate), Q2 at $75/oz (+34%), Q3 at $80/oz (+42%), and Q4 at $85/oz (+46%). The 2027 forecast now stands at $85.5/oz, up 45% from the earlier $58.8/oz estimate.
These substantial upward revisions suggest strong conviction in tighter market balances and sustained demand momentum, even as near-term volatility persists. However, broader global demand—particularly from large markets such as China and India—will be crucial in determining where silver ultimately finds support following recent pullbacks. Elevated Chinese investment demand, which has been influential across the metals complex, remains a key catalyst to monitor in the coming weeks. Still, the near-term stance remains cautious, with a preference to wait until recent speculative excess has fully unwound before re-engaging in silver.
JP MORGAN SILVER FORECAST: FAQs
1. What is the latest JP Morgan Silver Forecast for 2026?
JP Morgan has raised its 2026 silver price forecast to $81 per ounce, up from its earlier estimate of $56.3/oz. This marks a 44% increase from the previous projection, signaling a significantly more bullish long-term outlook.
2. Why did JP Morgan revise its silver price forecast higher?
The upward revision comes after silver’s extraordinary rally in 2025, where prices surged nearly 130% from $29/oz to above $70/oz, and later crossed the $100 mark in January. The bank also cited tightening supply conditions, strong industrial demand, and macroeconomic developments such as U.S. trade policy uncertainty and Federal Reserve leadership changes.
3. What factors are driving silver prices higher, according to JP Morgan?
Several factors are supporting silver prices:
- U.S. Section 232 trade policy review on critical minerals
- Supply constraints, as silver is largely mined as a byproduct of other metals
- Strong industrial demand, especially from the solar panel industry
- Elevated investment demand, particularly from China
- Broader precious metals momentum
However, short-term volatility increased after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which strengthened the U.S. dollar and triggered a sharp correction in silver.
4. Is JP Morgan suggesting silver is in a bubble?
Not exactly, but the bank is cautious. Gregory Shearer of JP Morgan warned that higher prices could accelerate substitution and thrifting trends, particularly in solar technology. Innovations like cadmium telluride thin-film solar panels could reduce silver usage over time. Since industrial demand accounts for about 60% of silver consumption (excluding ETFs), structural shifts could impact long-term balances.
5. How does silver’s outlook compare to gold?
Unlike gold, silver does not benefit from consistent central bank buying. Gold enjoys structural demand from global central banks as a reserve asset and inflation hedge. Silver lacks this steady baseline demand, which makes its fair value harder to determine. JP Morgan notes that without central banks acting as dip buyers, the gold-to-silver ratio could widen again.
Still, the bank remains structurally constructive on silver, with quarterly 2026 forecasts ranging from $75 to $85 per ounce and a 2027 estimate of $85.5/oz, though it advises caution until recent speculative froth fully unwinds.
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