ANZ Gold Forecast: In a recent research publication, ANZ Research has raised its Gold Price forecast for Q2 (April-June) in 2026, from $5,400 to $5,800. On Feb 17th, 2026, gold opened in COMEX at the rate of $5,050/oz. ANZ analysts believes that by the end of June, Gold would reach $5,800 mark. That is 14.85% increase in the upcoming months. They have attributed this change to macroeconomic conditions like demand for a safe haven investment tool, an increase in gold’s demand for investment purpose and strategic stockpiling of gold by central banks.
ANZ GOLD FORECAST KEY FACTORS
According to the report, analysts at ANZ research believes,
“Although recent volatility has raised questions about whether gold prices have peaked, we believe the rally is not yet mature enough to reverse anytime soon”.
They believe that the macroeconomic environment looks supportive, which would continue the bullish run of gold in Q2. According to ANZ following factor supports gold in the bullish run: –
Ultimate Safe Haven
The US Treasury was regarded as the world’s largest risk-free asset and foundation for interest-bearing and tradable instruments. Now, the same organization is facing trust issues.
According to the report, “Soaring debt levels, concerns about the Fed’s independence, and increasing risks of sanctions have fundamentally altered its status. As a result, investors are demanding higher premiums for long-dated US Treasuries, which is evident from the widening spread between long- and short-term yields.
There is a gradual shift towards diversifying away from the USD. While its dominance is likely to persist, de-dollarisation is gaining momentum in the wake of Russian asset freeze measures. Rising geopolitical risks under the Trump administration are undermining the USD’s status as a haven currency.”
And in such scenarios, gold seems to be the best bet.
Gold Demand Growth
Despite 50% increase in price in 2025, gold demand had continued to hold its ground. Investment was the primary driver of this demand. Due to the price increase, jewellery consumption had declined, and the central bank has eased up by some margin.
Yet, ANZ analysts believe, “We believe this trend will likely continue with investment demand absorbing the surplus caused by weaker physical demand.”
According to the report, ANZ analysts believe that the demand for gold would only increase via ETFs. They believe that the total holding in ETFs could potentially surpass 4,800t this year.
Central Banks
According to the data released bythe World Gold Council (WGC), the gold purchase by the central banks fell to 863t in 2025, after buying more than 1000t for three consecutive years. This deceleration was due to the central bank achieving its targets. The higher price of gold had also made central banks more cautious as indicated by the report of WGC.
Yet, ANZ analysts believe, “We believe the case for strategic stockpiling remains strong,2 though at a slower pace. Some central banks have either started buying after long gaps or indicated their intention to increase gold holdings. Brazil bought for the first time since 2013, adding 43t during September-November last year; while the Bank of Korea indicated it would start buying gold after a break since 2013. 3 Poland has indicated it will increase its reserves to 700t from the current holdings of 550t. This means another 150t of additional buying.”
ANZ SILVER FORECAST.
Silver has experienced historic volatility, with price swings pushing volatility to a record 82%. A sharp 31% intraday drop on 30 January 2026 led exchanges to significantly raise margin requirements—COMEX margins rose from 9% to 18%, reducing leverage to below 6%, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange also hiked margins multiple times. These measures caused a liquidity crunch, forcing investors to exit positions and worsening the sell-off.
Fundamentally, market conditions have softened. Supply dislocations are easing, the US briefly became a net exporter, and China’s imports increased due to higher premiums. Meanwhile, investment demand in India and China has moderated. Although the silver market is expected to remain undersupplied in the coming years, the deficit may narrow as total supply is projected to grow 3% in 2026, supported largely by scrap supply, while mine output growth remains limited.
On the demand side, industrial consumption—especially from the solar sector—is showing signs of weakness. With silver prices surging over 150% in 2025 and briefly crossing USD 100/oz, the metal’s cost share in solar panels rose sharply, prompting reduced silver usage and substitution. Solar demand is expected to grow long term, accounting for nearly 20% of total silver demand by 2030, but intensity reductions and eventual capacity peaks may cap growth.
Overall, silver’s price direction remains closely linked to gold. While strong investment demand may still provide upside, silver’s recent outperformance appears to be fading as high prices dampen industrial demand and investor enthusiasm, likely leading to a wider trading range ahead.
ANZ OUTLOOK ON FUNDAMENTALS OF PRECIOUS METALS
GOLD
Heightened geopolitical tensions are supporting safe-haven demand — Bullish
Strong investment flows and continued central bank buying — Bullish
Weakness in the US dollar expected to continue — Bullish
Expectation of two rate cuts in H1 2026, supportive for prices — Bullish
Ongoing geopolitical risks remain a key supportive factor — Bullish
China’s physical spot premium/discount remains neutral — Neutral
India’s gold imports normalised in December — Neutral
Central bank purchases fell to 44 tonnes in December — Neutral
Investors are increasing ETF holdings — Bullish
Technical indicators suggest prices could move higher — Bullish
SILVER
Spot market tightness is easing — Neutral
Supply dislocation pressures are easing — Neutral
Gold:silver ratio is reverting — Neutral
Industrial demand from the solar sector shows signs of weakness — Bearish
COMEX inventories are falling, with outflows to other markets — Neutral
ETF holdings have recovered, but YTD data shows net outflows — Neutral
Technical outlook suggests consolidation — Neutral
PLATINUM
Higher prices are weighing on industrial demand — Bearish
Tighter supply availability and policy uncertainty — Neutral
Easing Chinese platinum imports (jewellery demand softening) — Bearish
Investors are liquidating ETF holdings — Bearish
Technical outlook suggests consolidation — Neutral
ANZ FORECAST FAQs
1. What is the latest ANZ Gold Forecast for 2026?
The latest ANZ Gold Forecast suggests that gold prices are likely to remain well-supported amid geopolitical tensions, continued central bank buying, and expectations of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026.
2. Why is ANZ bullish on gold prices?
ANZ highlights heightened geopolitical risks, strong ETF inflows, persistent central bank demand, and a weaker US dollar outlook as key factors underpinning its positive stance on gold.
3. How do US rate cuts impact the ANZ Gold Forecast?
According to the ANZ Gold Forecast, anticipated rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby supporting higher prices.
4. What role does central bank buying play in the ANZ Gold Forecast?
Central bank purchases remain a structural pillar of demand. Even if monthly imports fluctuate, long-term reserve diversification trends continue to favour gold accumulation.
5. Does the ANZ Gold Forecast indicate further upside in prices?
Yes, the technical outlook referenced in the ANZ Gold Forecast suggests that prices could still move higher, supported by macroeconomic tailwinds and sustained investment demand.
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