LBMA Survey: Gold is expected to trade around 4,500 US dollars per ounce by the end of 2026, according to the average forecast from a mid-year survey of 16 professional analysts conducted by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in July. Forecasts varied significantly, reflecting continued uncertainty around monetary policy, inflation and geopolitical risks.
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Gold Price Forecast: Analysts Expect 4,500 US Dollars by Year-End
The LBMA survey puts the average year-end gold price forecast at 4,500 US dollars per ounce. Among the 16 analysts surveyed, the highest year-end projection was 5,100 US dollars, while the lowest stood at 3,879 US dollars.
The latest survey provides a mid-year update to the forecasts published by LBMA earlier in 2026 and shows that analysts’ expectations have broadly adjusted to the price performance seen during the first seven months of the year.
Gold Prices See Extreme Volatility in 2026
Gold prices experienced unusually sharp swings during the first seven months of 2026.
The precious metal reached an all-time high of 5,501.70 US dollars on January 29, before falling to a 2026 low of 3,978.55 US dollars on July 1. Gold subsequently ended July at 4,026.60 US dollars, representing an 8.2% decline for the year so far.
Despite the decline from the January peak, gold’s average price during the first seven months was 4,595.75 US dollars.
This was approximately 135 US dollars below the full-year average forecast of 4,730.75 US dollars made by 28 professional analysts surveyed by LBMA in January.
LBMA Mid-Year Survey Updates Gold Price Expectations
The mid-year LBMA survey indicates that professional analysts have brought their forecasts closer to the actual market performance seen so far in 2026.
The latest survey places the average 2026 gold price forecast at 4,604 US dollars per ounce.
For the second half of 2026, analysts’ projected price highs range from 4,872 to 5,800 US dollars, while forecast lows extend down to 3,450 US dollars.
The wide range highlights the uncertainty surrounding the gold market during the remainder of the year.
Fed Policy and US Inflation Remain Key Gold Price Drivers
The factors influencing gold price expectations have remained broadly similar to those identified at the beginning of 2026.
Analysts continue to monitor:
- US inflation
- Federal Reserve monetary policy
- Central bank gold purchases
- Geopolitical developments
- Middle East tensions
However, the emphasis among analysts has shifted, with greater attention now being placed on the Federal Reserve and its policy direction under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh.
The expected response of the US central bank to incoming US inflation data remains an important factor for the outlook for gold prices.
Middle East Tensions Also Remain a Major Concern
Geopolitical risks continue to feature prominently in analysts’ gold forecasts.
Out of the 16 analysts surveyed, five identified Iran as their primary concern. One analyst highlighted continued central bank demand for gold, while the remaining respondents focused mainly on the Federal Reserve and its response to US inflation.
This suggests that geopolitical uncertainty, monetary policy and official-sector gold purchases remain central to expectations for the precious metal.
LBMA Gold Price Forecast for 2026
The mid-year snapshot provides the following average projections from the 16 analysts surveyed:
- 2026 Average Gold Price: 4,604 US dollars per ounce
- 2026 H2 High: 4,818 US dollars per ounce
- 2026 Year-End Gold Price: 4,500 US dollars per ounce
The survey also shows a much wider range of individual expectations for the second half of the year, with projected highs between 4,872 and 5,800 US dollars and lows reaching as low as 3,450 US dollars.
What the LBMA Survey Means for Gold Investors
The LBMA survey indicates that professional analysts remain divided over the direction of gold prices for the rest of 2026. While the average year-end forecast stands at 4,500 US dollars, the broad range of projections reflects uncertainty over Fed policy, inflation, geopolitical risks and central bank buying.
Gold’s performance in the first seven months has already demonstrated the potential for significant price movements, making these factors particularly important for the market outlook.
FAQs
1. What is the LBMA gold price forecast for the end of 2026?
The average year-end gold price forecast from the LBMA’s July survey of 16 professional analysts is 4,500 US dollars per ounce. Individual year-end forecasts range from 3,879 to 5,100 US dollars, highlighting the significant uncertainty surrounding the gold market during the remainder of 2026.
2. What is the average gold price forecast for 2026?
According to the latest LBMA mid-year survey, professional analysts expect the average gold price for 2026 to be 4,604 US dollars per ounce. This forecast reflects a reassessment of expectations following the substantial volatility experienced by gold during the first seven months of the year.
3. What was the highest gold price recorded in 2026?
Gold reached an all-time high of 5,501.70 US dollars per ounce on January 29, 2026. The metal subsequently experienced a significant correction and touched a 2026 low of 3,978.55 US dollars on July 1, before ending July at 4,026.60 US dollars.
4. What factors are expected to influence gold prices in the second half of 2026?
LBMA analysts continue to monitor US inflation, Federal Reserve monetary policy, central bank gold purchases and geopolitical developments. Middle East tensions, particularly developments involving Iran, are also a major concern. The Fed’s policy direction under its new leadership is receiving increased attention from analysts.
5. How high and low could gold prices go in the second half of 2026?
The LBMA survey shows a wide range of expectations. Forecast highs for the second half of 2026 range from 4,872 to 5,800 US dollars per ounce, while projected lows could fall to 3,450 US dollars. This broad range reflects continued uncertainty over monetary policy, inflation, geopolitics and central bank demand.
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