This decision marks what is expected to be Powell’s final meeting as chair, coinciding with the Senate Banking Committee’s approval of his successor, Kevin Warsh, to take the helm next month.

Fed Navigates “Wait and See” Approach Amid Iran Conflict

Despite intense pressure from President Donald Trump to slash borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%. The decision underscores a cautious strategy as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran creates a fog of economic uncertainty.

• Energy and Inflation Spikes: The ongoing conflict has already driven up energy costs, leading to higher prices at gas pumps and grocery stores.
• Inflation Setback: Hopes for immediate rate cuts were dampened by March inflation figures, which surged to 3.3%—the highest level since May 2024.
• Delayed Relief: While the Fed hinted at future cuts, Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics warned that continued oil price volatility could delay rate reductions until as late as 2027.

Powell’s Defiant Stand: Staying On Amid Investigations

While his term as chair is ending, Jerome Powell confirmed he has no intention of leaving the Federal Reserve board entirely. His term as a governor lasts until 2028, and he plans to use that tenure to see through a Trump administration probe into the bank.

• The Probe Factor: Despite U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro suggesting the investigation would close, Powell stated he would remain until the matter is settled with “transparency and finality”.
• No “Shadow Chair”: Powell promised to maintain a low profile and dismissed concerns that his presence would undermine Kevin Warsh, stating he would never act as a “shadow chair”

Powell took the opportunity to congratulate Kevin Warsh on his nomination, confirmed that he will continue serving as a governor beyond May 15, and acknowledged the conclusion of a US Department of Justice probe, while cautioning that uncertainty is still elevated.

Powell confirmed he will step down as chair on May 15 but remain as a Fed governor for now.

The Fight for Independence

In his final press conference, Powell issued a stern warning about the “legal assaults” directed at the Fed by the Trump administration.

Powell described the administration’s legal actions as “unprecedented in our 113-year history”.

He argued that these attacks are “battering the institution” and threaten the Fed’s ability to set monetary policy without political interference.

Kevin Warsh: The Final Hurdle

With the Senate Banking Committee’s backing, Kevin Warsh’s transition to the chair appears to be a mere formality.

• Political Path Cleared: Senator Thom Tillis dropped his block on the appointment after the Justice Department paused its probe into Powell.
• Senate Vote: A full Senate vote is the final step. With a Republican majority, Warsh is expected to be confirmed in time to take over by May 15.
• Independence Vow: Though Warsh faces the same presidential pressure for lower rates, he has vowed to uphold the central bank’s independence from the White House.

Labor Market Resilience

While inflation remains a concern, the other side of the Fed’s dual mandate—maximum employment—is showing signs of steady health.

• Payroll Growth: Nonfarm payrolls surged by 178,000 in March, exceeding market expectations.
• Falling Unemployment: The national unemployment rate has slipped to 4.3%, signaling a tightening labor market.
• Private Sector Strength: Data from ADP shows average weekly private payroll growth of approximately 40,000 for April.
• Healthy Outlook: These figures suggest that while the jobs market may not be “robust,” it has moved past the stagnant “low-hire, low-fire” phase and remains fundamentally healthy.

FAQ’s

1. Why did the Federal Reserve keep interest rates unchanged?
The Federal Reserve maintained rates due to persistent inflation above target, rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, and the need to assess evolving economic conditions before making further policy moves.

2. What is the current interest rate range set by the Fed?
The central bank has kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a cautious “wait and see” stance.

3. How is the Iran conflict impacting the Fed’s decision?
The conflict is pushing up global energy prices, which in turn fuels inflation. This makes it difficult for the Fed to consider immediate rate cuts despite political pressure.

4. What is changing in Fed leadership?
Jerome Powell will step down as Chair on May 15 but remain a governor. Kevin Warsh is expected to take over pending final Senate approval.

5. What does this mean for markets and the economy?
Markets may remain volatile as investors track inflation, geopolitical risks, and leadership transition. While the labour market remains stable, uncertainty around policy direction and global tensions could influence future rate decisions.

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