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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in August. On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices were up 3.4%. Both figures matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.

However, underlying inflation showed somewhat greater strength than expected. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% during the month, coming in 0.1 percentage point above market expectations. The annual core inflation rate stood at 2.4%, in line with forecasts.

The August inflation report was particularly important because it represents the final major inflation reading available to the Federal Reserve before its policy meeting next week. The meeting is scheduled to conclude on Wednesday with a decision on the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.

Markets Increase Bets on Fed Rate Hike

Financial markets reacted strongly to the inflation figures, with traders increasing their expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tracker, the probability of a quarter-point rate hike climbed to nearly 90% following the release. Before the CPI report, markets had been pricing in roughly a 70% probability of a rate increase.

“There’s no guarantee that the Fed will hike next week, but it’s hard to see how the central bank can justify leaving rates on hold,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.

Despite the stronger inflation figures, US stock market futures moved higher during morning trading as oil prices fell sharply. Treasury yields were mixed, while the two-year Treasury note, which is particularly sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, gained 4.6 basis points to 4.594%.

One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.

Energy Prices Drive August Inflation

Energy prices were among the biggest contributors to the August CPI increase. Gasoline prices jumped 3.9% during the month and accounted for more than one-third of the overall increase in the consumer price index.

The broader energy index rose 2.1% in August amid concerns linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East. On an annual basis, the energy index was up 16.3%.

Gasoline prices increased 27.4% over the past year, while fuel oil prices surged 52%.

Food prices also moved higher, although the increase was modest. The food index rose 0.1% during August, while prices for food consumed at home remained unchanged. On a yearly basis, the food index increased 2.7%.

Shelter and Transportation Costs Also Rise

Shelter costs provided another notable contribution to inflation, rising 0.3% in August after showing signs of moderation during the previous two months.

Transportation services also recorded a monthly increase of 0.5%. Used cars and trucks became 0.4% more expensive, while new vehicle prices increased 0.3%.

The broad-based nature of the price increases added to concerns that inflationary pressure may not be easing quickly enough for the Federal Reserve.

Not every category moved higher. Apparel prices remained unchanged, while motor vehicle insurance costs declined 0.8% during the month.

Fed Faces Inflation and Policy Dilemma

The latest inflation figures have intensified the debate over the direction of Federal Reserve policy. While several policymakers have supported a more patient approach, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has repeatedly stressed the importance of bringing inflation back toward the central bank’s 2% target.

Warsh recently said that if inflation data fail to improve, “we have work to do.” His comments were broadly viewed by markets as supportive of a potential rate increase.

“Chair Warsh and others signaled that interest rates can remain on hold only if disinflation continues and today’s August report did not deliver that,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. “Further, the renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices add to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services and inflation expectations.”

Nationwide has now revised its expectations and anticipates a quarter-point rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting.

The federal funds rate is currently maintained within a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, where it has remained throughout 2026.

What the August CPI Report Means for Investors

The latest inflation data suggest that the Federal Reserve continues to face a difficult policy environment. While core inflation remains considerably below the headline rate, the stronger-than-expected monthly increase and renewed pressure from energy prices could make policymakers more cautious about easing financial conditions.

Investors will now closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision, along with policymakers’ updated economic projections and guidance on future interest-rate moves. The path of inflation, energy prices, Treasury yields and consumer demand is likely to remain important for financial markets in the coming months.

FAQ’s

1. What was the US inflation rate in August 2026?
The US Consumer Price Index increased 3.4% on an annual basis in August 2026, while prices rose 0.4% during the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The headline figures were broadly in line with economists’ expectations.

2. Why did inflation remain elevated in August?
Higher energy prices were a major contributor to the August increase. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% during the month, while the broader energy index gained 2.1%. Shelter, transportation services, used vehicles and new vehicles also recorded increases.

3. What happened to core inflation in August?
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% in August. This was 0.1 percentage point higher than economists had expected. The annual core inflation rate stood at 2.4%, matching the market forecast.

4. How could higher energy prices affect the broader economy?
A sustained increase in oil, gasoline and diesel prices can raise transportation and production costs for businesses. Companies may eventually pass those higher expenses on to consumers, potentially creating additional inflationary pressure across goods and services.

5. Why are investors closely watching the Federal Reserve’s next decision?
The August inflation report was the final major inflation indicator available to the Federal Reserve before its upcoming policy meeting. The stronger-than-expected core CPI reading and elevated energy costs have increased expectations that policymakers could raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.

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Gold and silver are under pressure due to strength in the dollar index, cryptocurrencies, and U.S. equities following Trump’s recent presidential election win. The dollar index has hit a 6.5-month high, while Bitcoin surged to $90,000 per coin, reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance. These factors have weighed on precious metals, with gold testing support around $2,600 per troy ounce, a two-month low, and silver falling to $30.20 per troy ounce, marking a six-week low before rebounding.

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Additionally, U.S. 10-year bond yields are at four-month highs, reducing the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver. Market sentiment appears oversold, with a possible rebound, or “dead cat bounce,” anticipated after today’s inflation data, set to release at 7 PM IST.

Manoj Kumar Jain, Director at Prithvi Finmart, commented, “We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week ahead of the U.S. inflation data and fluctuations in global financial markets. Gold has support at $2,584-$2,566, with resistance at $2,622-$2,645 per troy ounce, while silver’s support is at $30.45-$30.20, with resistance at $31.00-$31.34 per troy ounce in today’s session. On MCX, gold has support at Rs 74,640-Rs 74,400 and resistance at Rs 75,220-Rs 75,500, while silver’s support is at Rs 88,500-Rs 88,000 with resistance at Rs 89,950-Rs 90,600. We suggest buying silver on dips around Rs 89,000 with a stop loss of Rs 88,200, targeting Rs 90,500.”

Kedia Commodity Gold Silver Price Outlook Today
MCX Gold: Gold MCX prices look to get support at 74500 and resistance at 75300.
MCX Silver: Silver MCX prices look to get support at 88100 and resistance at 90600.
Spot Gold: Gold prices look to get support at 2588$ and resistance at 2632$.
Spot Silver: prices look to get support at 30.50$ and resistance at 31.50$.

IIDM Daily update on Spot Gold
Spot Gold marked losses for third straight session, down by 0.7% and touched almost 2-months low of $2589/oz on Tuesday on a stronger US dollar and as traders await Fed cues.
Resistance level is situated at 2610 above which we can see an upside move towards 2625-2630. Crucial support zone is seen at 2590/85 below which a further dip towards 2575-2560 can be seen.

Big Event of the Week
Wednesday, November 13
07:00 PM – U.S. Core Inflation Rate MoM (October)
07:00 PM – U.S. Inflation Rate MoM (October)
07:00 PM – U.S. CPI (October)

Thursday, November 14
02:00 AM – U.S. Fed Schmid Speech
07:00 PM – U.S. PPI MoM (October)
07:00 PM – U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (November 9)
07:00 PM – U.S. Core PPI MoM (October)
07:45 PM – U.S. Fed Barkin Speech
01:30 AM – U.S. Fed Chair Powell Speech

Friday, November 15
05:20 AM – Japan GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q3)
07:30 AM – China Industrial Production YoY (October)
07:00 PM – U.S. Retail Sales MoM (October)
07:45 PM – U.S. Industrial Production MoM (October)
07:45 PM – U.S. Manufacturing Production MoM (October)

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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of industry experts. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you consult a financial advisor. The team at Gold Price Today does not engage in personal buying, selling, or trading of gold or silver on exchanges. We are not responsible for any gains or losses incurred based on the information presented here.

Comex gold and silver were traded in a tight range ahead of the U.S. inflation data. Gold and silver are taking cues from the weakness in the dollar index and the U.S. 10-year bond yields. The U.S. dollar slipped to 16 month lows against the pound sterling and one month lows against the Japanese Yen. The U.S. 10-year bond yield is also slipped below 4.0% and giving signal for cooling off in the U.S. inflation. Gold is heading towards $1950 per troy ounce and silver is steady above $23 per troy ounce levels. US Inflation data to come today at 6PM according to India time.

Manoj Kumar Jain, Director, Prithvi Finmart
‘Looking to the weakness in the dollar index, gold and silver could give fresh upside price breakout after U.S. inflation data. We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index and ahead of the U.S. inflation data. Gold prices expected to test $1958 per troy ounce and silver could also test $24 per troy ounce levels in this week. Gold has support at $1922-1914, while resistance at $1948-1962 per troy ounce. Silver has support at $23.00-22.84, while resistance is at $23.55-23.80 per troy ounce.

Comex Gold and Silver Update by Nirmal Bang Securities 12 July 2023
Gold prices are likely to take support around 1925-1918 and test 1940-50.
We are recommending to buy on dips around 1925for a target of 1940-45. We recommend buying around 23.20-15 for a target of 23.45-23.50.

Geojit London Gold Spot Technical Commentary 12 July 2023
Gold LBMA Spot: Prices remains choppy inside $1940-1900 levels and breaking any of the sides would suggest fresh short term direction.
Silver LBMA Spot: Range bound trading expected initially, but a direct break above $23.50 would trigger recovery rallies

Ravindra V. Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd
‘US CPI data will be in major focus for the day. The headline CPI is expected to ease to 3.1% y/y, while the core might remain at 5% y/y, according to Bloomberg forecast. Elevated core inflation might raise the odds of a second 25 bps hike in September, as per the June projections. This might prove to be a short term headwind for gold prices.”

Data to Watch Today 12 July 2023 (India Time)
12th July 6:00 PM United States CPI m/m 0.3% 0.1% -High
12th July 6:00 PM United States Core CPI m/m 0.3% 0.4% High
12th July 7:15pm United States FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks – – Low
12th July 11:30pm United States Beige Book – – Low

Gold Ratio
Gold Silver Rsatio:83.21
Gold Crude Ratio: 25.89

Gold London: Gold and Silver Fix
Gold London AM Fix($/oz): 1936.20
Gold London PM Fix($/oz): 1933.95
Silver London Fix($/oz): 23.14

ETF Holdings as on Previous Close
SPDR Gold: 917.86 (Long), 00 (Short)
iShares Silver: 14,508.99 (Long), 00 (Short)

Weekly CFTC Positions
Gold($/oz): 122450 (Long), 35978 (Short), 86472 (Net)
Silver: 33921 (Long), 22286 (Short), 11635 (Net)

COMEX Futures Watch (Last Close)
Gold($/oz) Aug 23: 1937.10 Dollar (Close), 6.10 (Change)
Silver($/oz) JUL 23: 23.28 Dollar (Close),-0.06 (Change)

Nirmal Bang Securities Gold Fundamental Outlook For 12 July 2023
Gold and silver prices are trading flat on international bourses. We expect gold to trade sideways to lower for the day as the market will be looking ahead to inflation data due Wednesday that’ll shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

Geojit MCX Gold Technical Commentary
Gold KG Aug: Further selloffs are seen only a break of Rs 58000. if unable to break the same prices remain rangebound.
Silver KG Sep: While above Rs 71000 likely to extend buying momentum. A direct dip below Rs 68000 is a sign of major downside reversal.

SMC Global Securities Views on MCX Gold and Silver 12 July 2023
‘Gold may trade in the range of 58500-59000, Silver also trades in the range of 70900-72000 where buying near support is advised. Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday after the greenback and bond yields retreated as investors cautiously awaited U.S. inflation data that could offer more cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike policy path.’

Daily Commodity Calls Nirmal Bang Securities 12 July 2023
BUY GOLD AUG (MCX) AT 58850 SL 58600 TARGET 59200/59400
BUY SILVER JULY (MCX) AT 71300 SL 70700 TARGET 72000/72500

Manoj Kumar Jain, Director, Prithvi Finmart 12 July 2023 Views
‘At mcx, gold is having support at 58550-58330 and resistance at 59000-59220 while silver is having support at 70700-70200 and resistance at 71650-72200. We suggest buying gold around 58600 with a stop loss of 58380 for the target of 59100 and also suggest buying silver around 70800 with a stop loss of 70200 for the target of 72000.’

Kedia Commodity Daily morning calls as on Tuesday, July 12, 2023
BUY GOLD AUG 2023 at 58600, SL 58400, TGT 58900-59100.MCX
BUY SILVER SEP 2023 at 70900, SL 70400, TGT 71500-72000.MCX
BUY CRUDEOIL JUL 2023 at 6100, SL 6000, TGT 6250-6350.MCX
BUY NAT GAS JUL 2023 at 220.00, SL 215.00, TGT 226.00-230.00.MCX
BUY COPPER JUL 2023 at 717.00, SL 714.00, TGT 722.00-726.00.MCX
BUY ZINC JUL 2023 at 213.00, SL 211.00, TGT 215.50-217.00.MCX
BUY ALUMINIUM JUL 2023 at195.00, SL 193.00, TGT 198.00-200.00.MCX
BUY LEAD JUL 2023 at 181.00, SL 180.00, TGT 182.00-183.00.MCX

Gold Price Today in Carats, fineness and Purity:
24 carat gold price today (Purity 999)- Rs 60500/10 Gram
22 carat gold price today (Purity 916) – Rs 55900/10 Gram
18 carat gold price today (Purity 750) – Rs 46200/10 Gram
14 carat gold price today (Purity 585) – Rs 36100/10 Gram
Silver Price Today (Purity 999) – Rs 73000 per kg

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Note: The prices being given on Gold Price Today are taken from different jewellers and bullion associations of the country. The price of gold, silver in your city may fluctuate as the local jewellers add GST, making charges and hallmarking charges to the gold price. Many jewellers also charge a premium for their shop. Therefore, there is a difference in the price of gold and silver at the shop in bullion.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is i intended for informational purposes only and reflects the views of the expert. Prior to making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you seek the advice of a financial advisor. The individuals affiliated with Gold Price Today do not engage in the personal buying, selling, or trading of gold/silver. We cannot be held liable for any gains or losses incurred.