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Gold Recovers After Monday’s Sharp Decline

Spot gold gained 0.6% to 4,023.77 US dollars per ounce after briefly falling to 3,983.29 US dollars, its weakest level since 1 July. US gold futures for August delivery also advanced 0.6%, reaching 4,030.30 US dollars per ounce.

The rebound follows Monday’s sharp sell-off, when gold dropped nearly 3%, marking its biggest single-day decline in more than a month.

US-Iran Tensions Continue to Influence Markets

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has pushed crude oil prices to a one-month high, increasing concerns about inflation. Higher energy prices could add pressure to consumer prices, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy tighter for longer.

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates generally reduce its appeal because the precious metal does not generate interest income.

Markets Await Key US Economic Data

Investor attention is now focused on several important US economic events scheduled this week.

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be closely watched for clues about inflation trends. The market is also awaiting the Producer Price Index (PPI) report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first semi-annual testimony before Congress, both of which could influence expectations for future monetary policy.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Increase

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that policymakers may need to raise interest rates in the near term if inflation continues to remain well above the central bank’s 2% target.

Following these comments, traders increased their expectations of a September rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate increase has climbed to approximately 76%, compared with 57% just one week earlier.

Other Precious Metals Show Mixed Performance

Performance across the broader precious metals market remained mixed.

• Silver rose 0.6% to 57.99 US dollars per ounce after touching a two-week low earlier in the session.
• Platinum slipped 0.3% to 1,600.24 US dollars per ounce.
• Palladium gained 1.9%, reaching 1,269.98 US dollars per ounce.

FAQ’s

1. Why did gold prices recover on Tuesday?

Gold rebounded after falling to a two-week low as investors positioned ahead of key US inflation data and continued monitoring geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

2. Why is the US CPI report important for gold prices?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation and can influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Higher inflation may increase the likelihood of rate hikes, which often pressure gold prices.

3. How are US-Iran tensions affecting the gold market?

The conflict has pushed oil prices higher, raising inflation concerns and increasing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, while also supporting expectations of tighter monetary policy.

4. What is the current outlook for US interest rates?

Market participants currently expect a strong possibility of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating approximately a 76% probability.

5. How did other precious metals perform?

Silver posted modest gains after recovering from a two-week low, palladium moved higher, while platinum edged lower during Tuesday’s trading session.

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Spot gold slipped 1.5 percent to 4,060.49 US dollars per ounce by 0735 GMT, while August COMEX gold futures traded around 4,069.50 US dollars per ounce, down nearly 1 percent during the session.

Middle East Tensions Push Oil Higher

Market volatility increased after reports of renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran. Concerns that the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes—could face disruptions sent crude oil prices up by roughly four percent.

The rise in oil prices also supported the US dollar and Treasury yields, while equity markets across Asia traded lower as investors shifted toward risk-averse positioning.

Higher Inflation Expectations Weigh on Gold

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical uncertainty, the latest surge in oil prices raised fears that inflation could remain elevated. That has strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Market analysts noted that while geopolitical risks generally support bullion, sustained energy-driven inflation can have the opposite effect if it leads to tighter monetary policy.

Investors Await Key US Economic Data

Attention now turns to several major US economic releases scheduled this week, including June Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, and other indicators that could provide fresh insight into inflation and economic activity.

Market participants will also closely monitor Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s semiannual testimony before Congress, along with speeches from Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, for further guidance on the central bank’s interest-rate outlook.

Fed Rate Expectations Increase

According to market pricing, traders now see approximately a 72 percent probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in September, compared with about 63 percent a week earlier. Rising expectations for tighter monetary policy have added pressure on precious metals in recent sessions.

Latest positioning data also showed that COMEX gold investors slightly reduced their net long positions during the previous reporting week after three consecutive weeks of increases.

Silver, Platinum and Palladium Also Decline

The weakness extended across the broader precious metals market.

• Spot Silver fell 2.5 percent to 58.35 US dollars per ounce.
• Platinum eased 0.5 percent to 1,619.72 US dollars per ounce.
• Palladium declined 1.5 percent to 1,257.82 US dollars per ounce.

Investors are expected to remain focused on geopolitical developments, energy prices, inflation data and Federal Reserve signals as they assess the next direction for precious metals.

FAQs

1. Why did gold prices fall despite rising geopolitical tensions?

Gold declined because soaring oil prices increased expectations of higher inflation and additional US interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

2. How did the Strait of Hormuz concerns affect financial markets?

Fears of potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude oil prices, strengthened the US dollar and Treasury yields, and pressured equity and precious metals markets.

3. Which US economic events are investors watching this week?

Markets are closely monitoring the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales data, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and speeches from other Fed officials.

4. What are traders expecting from the Federal Reserve?

Market participants currently assign a higher probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, reflecting persistent inflation concerns driven partly by higher energy prices.

5. How did other precious metals perform?

Silver recorded the sharpest decline, falling about 2.5 percent, while platinum and palladium also moved lower as investors adjusted positions ahead of major economic data and central bank guidance.

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The full, official journalistic dispatch detailing the market parameters, trading metrics, and expert analysis is presented below:

Sharp Declines Hit Spot Prices and Gold Futures

Gold extended losses on Wednesday, touching its lowest in almost two weeks as ‌the dollar climbed due to rising bets on U.S. rate hikes, while investors assessed conflicting signals on U.S.-Iran peace talks.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to 4,081.24 dollar per ounce by 0751 GMT, having earlier hit its lowest since June 11. U.S. gold futures for August delivery declined 1.2% to 4,098.70 dollar.

Geopolitical Friction Destabilizes Fragile U.S.-Iran Peace Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran had agreed to nuclear inspections into “infinity,” while Tehran said it ⁠had made no such concession in negotiations, raising questions about the viability of their fragile ​peace deal.

The two sides also disagreed on the details of a provision that would allow ​Iran access to funds frozen in overseas accounts.

“What we’re witnessing here is the evolution of the pressure that gold came under as a function of the war,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at ​Tastylive. “The sort of inflation to higher rates dynamic has appeared in bonds falling, yields rising, ​the dollar rising, and gold falling.”

Federal Reserve Policy Shifts the Inflation Hedge Dynamic

Bullion has fallen about 23% since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on ‌Iran ⁠in late February, as mounting inflationary pressure has given way to expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. While gold is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge, it loses its appeal as a non-yielding asset in a high-interest-rate environment.

The dollar hit a more than ​one-year high, making bullion ​more expensive for overseas ⁠buyers. Traders are pricing in three Fed rate increases this year, compared with bets of one hike before last week’s Fed meeting, according to ​the CME FedWatch Tool.

Critical Inflation Benchmarks and Technical Support Levels Ahead

Investors now await the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures ​data, the ⁠Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Thursday, for further cues on monetary policy.

“If we continue to mostly focus on inflation and we take out the 4,000 dollar level, then we’re going to be in ⁠the direction ​of 3,800 dollar, and we’re going to have a conversation about ​whether a test of 3,500 dollar follows next,” Spivak said.

Broader Precious Metals Market Performance

The downward momentum across the commodities sector also pulled down alternative precious metals. Spot silver fell 0.4% to 61.80 dollar per ounce, platinum lost 0.6% to 1,641.35 dollar, and palladium dropped ​1.3% to 1,221.71 dollar.

FAQ’s

1. Why did gold prices fall to a two-week low?
Gold prices declined primarily because the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly as traders increased bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates tend to reduce the attractiveness of gold, which does not generate yield, leading investors to shift toward interest-bearing assets.

2. How are Federal Reserve rate hike expectations affecting the gold market?
Markets are now pricing in as many as three U.S. interest rate increases this year. Higher rates generally support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, making gold less attractive as an investment and putting downward pressure on bullion prices.

3. What role are U.S.-Iran peace talks playing in gold price movements?
Conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran regarding nuclear inspections and access to frozen Iranian funds have created uncertainty about the future of the peace agreement. While geopolitical tensions can support safe-haven demand for gold, current market focus remains on monetary policy and interest rate expectations.

4. What key economic data are investors watching next?
Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. The data could provide important clues about future monetary policy decisions and the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes.

5. How did other precious metals perform alongside gold?
The broader precious metals market also weakened. Spot silver fell to 61.80 dollar per ounce, platinum declined to 1,641.35 dollar per ounce, and palladium dropped to 1,221.71 dollar per ounce, reflecting widespread pressure across the sector from a stronger dollar and rising rate expectations.

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Comex gold and silver plunged again on Monday amid recovery in the dollar index and the U.S. 10-year bond yields. The dollar index crossed 102 marks once again and the U.S. 10-year bond yields also crossed 3.80% levels and restricted gains of precious metals. The U.S. markets were closed on Monday and there was no economic data release to set the directions. Gold and silver also showed profit taking ahead of the U.S. Fed officials speech and testimony later this week to give more clarity on the further interest rate hikes in the upcoming policy meetings. The U.S. Fed Chairman’s testimony on Wednesday before the U.S. congress could give more clarity on the U.S. economy and interest rates.

Manoj Kumar Jain, Director, Prithvi Finmart 20 June 2023 Comex Gold and Silver Update
‘We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile in today’s session and gold and silver could hold its respective support levels of $1935 per troy ounce and $23.50 per troy ounce. Gold has support at $1950-1934, while resistance at $1974-1988 per troy ounce. Silver has support at $23.70-23.50, while resistance is at $24.25-24.55 per troy ounce.

Comex Gold and Silver Update by Nirmal Bang Securities 20 June 2023
‘Gold prices are supported at lower levels like 1940-44 and likely to test 1970-90. We are recommending to buy on dips around 1955-50 for a target of 1970-80.We recommend buying around 23.50-40 for a target of 24.60-80.’

Gold LBMA Spot Geojit Daily Report 20 June 2023
Gold LBMA Spot: Congested trade inside $1990-1920 levels remains on card initially. Breaking any of the sides would set fresh directional moves.
Silver LBMA Spot: Possibilities of a mild upticks remains intact. However, break above $24.50 is needed to strengthen the momentum.

Ravindra V. Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities Ltd
‘Meanwhile, the yield on UK two year bonds rose above 5% for the first time since July 2008, as investors ramped up their bets on how fast and how far the Bank of England will raise interest rates. Rising yields raise the opportunity cost for holding the non-yielding bullions. Gold has also lost some of its haven support over recent weeks as fears over a regional banking crisis eased and on signs of an improvement in the US-China relationship. Dollar index steadied ahead of a slew of Fed official speeches this week, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Wednesday. We might see some pressure in gold prices, amid rising yields.’

Ajay Kedia Director Kedia Commodity Comex Gold Levels
GOLD – $1950.39
Resistance: 1956.6-1962.8-1966.9-1973.8
Support: 1946.3-1942.2-1936-1929.1

SILVER – $23.96
Resistance: 24.13-24.31-24.42-24.59
Support: 23.85-23.74-23.57-23.4

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities
‘Gold has support at $1938-1927 while resistance is at $1951-1962. Silver has support at $23.74-23.58, while resistance is at $24.04-24.22.’

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) Commodity Report 20 June 2023

Data to Watch Today 20 June 2023 (India Time)
20th June 06:00 PM United States Building Permits
20th June 06:00 PM United States Housing Starts
20th June 09:15 PM United States FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Gold Ratio
Gold Silver Ratio: 80.99
Gold Crude Ratio: 27.46

Gold London: Gold and Silver Fix
Gold London AM Fix($/oz): 1954.35
Gold London PM Fix($/oz): 1951.15
Silver London Fix($/oz): 23.95

ETF Holdings as on Previous Close
SPDR Gold: 934.03 (Long), 4.33 (Short)
iShares Silver: 14,406.62 (Long), -14.28 (Short)

Weekly CFTC Positions
Gold($/oz): 126927 (Long), 33623 (Short), 93304 (Net)
Silver: 40237 (Long), 25600 (Short), 14637 (Net)

COMEX Futures Watch (Last Close)
Gold($/oz) Aug 23: 1971.20 Dollar (Close), 0.5 Dollar (Change)
Silver($/oz) JUL 23: 24.34 Dollar (Close), -0.18 (Change)

Nirmal Bang Securities Outlook For 20 June 2023
‘Gold and silver prices are trading lower on international bourses as prospect of more monetary tightening and ebbing haven demand are subduing prices. We expect gold to trade sideways to lower for the day on signs the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates, a negative for non-interest-bearing gold.’

Daily Commodity Calls Nirmal Bang Securities 20 June 2023
BUY GOLD AUG (MCX) AT 59000 SL 58750 TARGET 59400/59600
BUY SILVER JULY (MCX) AT 72100 SL 71500 TARGET 72850/73300

Anuj Gupta, VP, IIFL Sec, Daily Commodity Calls 20 June 2023
BUY MCX CRUDEOIL JULY AT 5800 SL 5650 TARGET 6100
BUY MCX GOLD AUG AT 59100 SL 58750 SL 59750
BUY MCX SILVER JULY AT 72200 SL 71600 TARGET 73200
BUY MCX COPPER JUNE AT 725 SL 719 TARGET 733

Manoj Jain, Director, Prithvi Finmart
‘At MCX, gold is having support at 59000-58770 and resistance at 59350-59500 while silver is having support at 72000-71550 and resistance at 72900-73350. We suggest buying silver on the dips around 72000 with a stop loss of 71550 for the target of 72900 and stay away from gold in today’s session..’

Kedia Commodity MCX Gold, Silver Levels
MCXBULLDEX – 16016
Resistance: 16061-16105-16133
Support: 15989-15961-15917

GOLD – 59157
Resistance: 59313-59469-59568
Support: 59058-58959-58803

SILVER – 72446
Resistance: 72847-73248-73519
Support: 72175-71904-71503

Geojit Intraday Technical Outlook Gold and Silver 20 June 2023
MCX Gold: If unable to move past Rs 59000 there are chances
of recovery upticks. A direct dip below the same would trigger further liquidation.
MCX Silver: Break above Rs 74000 needed to extend rallies. Otherwise choppy with mild negative bias expected the day.

Kedia Commodity Daily morning calls as on Tuesday, June 20, 2023
BUY GOLD AUG 2023 @ 59000 SL 58800 TGT 59300-59500.MCX
BUY SILVER JUL 2023 @ 72000 SL 71500 TGT 72600-73000.MCX
SELL CRUDEOIL JUL 2023 @ 5900 SL 6000 TGT 5800-5700.MCX
SELL NAT GAS JUN 2023 @ 220.00 SL 225.00 TGT 213.00-208.00.MCX
SELL COPPER JUN 2023 @ 733.00 SL 738.00 TGT 727.00-724.00.MCX
SELL ZINC JUN 2023 @ 222.00 SL 225.00 TGT 218.00-216.00.MCX
SELL ALUMINIUM JUN 2023 @ 205.00 SL 207.00 TGT 203.00-201.00.MCX
SELL LEAD JUN 2023 @ 185.00 SL 186.00 TGT 184.00-183.00.MCX

Gold Price Today in Carats, fineness and Purity:
24 carat gold price today (Purity 999)- Rs 61000/10 Gram
22 carat gold price today (Purity 916) – Rs 56500/10 Gram
18 carat gold price today (Purity 750) – Rs 46450/10 Gram
14 carat gold price today (Purity 585) – Rs 36600/10 Gram
Silver Price Today (Purity 999) – Rs 74900 per kg

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Note: The prices being given on Gold Price Today are taken from different jewellers and bullion associations of the country. The price of gold, silver in your city may fluctuate as the local jewellers add GST, making charges and hallmarking charges to the gold price. Many jewellers also charge a premium for their shop. Therefore, there is a difference in the price of gold and silver at the shop in bullion.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is i intended for informational purposes only and reflects the views of the expert. Prior to making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you seek the advice of a financial advisor. The individuals affiliated with Gold Price Today do not engage in the personal buying, selling, or trading of gold/silver. We cannot be held liable for any gains or losses incurred.