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Gold and silver investors should take note of these changes as precious metal ETFs can see sharp price movements, particularly when international bullion markets move while Indian markets are closed.

What Has SEBI Changed in ETF Trading?

An ETF essentially has two important values. Its Net Asset Value (NAV) represents the per-unit value of the assets held by the fund, while its market price is determined by buying and selling activity on the stock exchange.

Ideally, the ETF’s market price should remain close to its NAV. However, the two can diverge, particularly during periods of high volatility or when an ETF has relatively low trading volumes.

SEBI has now changed several aspects of the ETF trading framework to improve this price discovery process.

New ETF Base Price System From September 7

Under the earlier system, an ETF’s base price was linked to its NAV from two trading days earlier, or T-2 NAV. Most ETFs could then move within a 20% price band on either side of that base price.

Under the revised framework, the base price will instead be linked to the previous trading day’s closing price. It will be calculated using the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of the ETF during the final 30 minutes of the previous trading session.

In practical terms, the next day’s trading range will be based more closely on where the ETF actually traded toward the end of the previous session rather than relying on a two-day-old NAV.

Different ETFs Will Now Have Different Price Bands

SEBI has also introduced different price-band structures depending on the category of ETF.

• Equity and debt ETFs: Initial price band of 10%, which can be expanded in stages up to 20%.
• Whenever the applicable limit is reached, a 15-minute cooling-off period will apply before the band can be widened further.
• Gold and silver ETFs: Initial price band of 6%, with the ability to widen the band in 3% increments without an upper limit.
• Overnight and liquid ETFs: A fixed 5% price band will continue to apply.

The framework is particularly relevant for gold and silver ETFs because international bullion prices can move substantially while Indian markets are closed. The revised structure provides greater flexibility for these ETFs to adjust to significant overnight changes.

Gold and Silver ETFs to Get Pre-Open Call Auction

One of the most important changes for precious metal investors is the introduction of a pre-open call auction for gold and silver ETFs.

From September 7, buy and sell orders will be collected during the pre-open period and matched at a single equilibrium price. The objective is to make the opening price more representative of overall demand and supply instead of allowing an isolated order to disproportionately influence the opening trade.

According to the India Today report, the move is intended to improve price discovery and bring ETF trading prices closer to the value of their underlying assets.

Will Gold and Silver ETFs Always Trade at NAV?

No. The revised rules do not guarantee that an ETF’s market price will always exactly match its NAV.

Gold and silver ETFs can still trade at a premium or discount to NAV, depending on factors such as investor demand, supply, trading volumes and liquidity.

The new framework also does not change ETF returns, investment costs or taxation.

What Should Gold and Silver ETF Investors Do?

Investors should pay close attention to the indicative NAV (iNAV) before placing trades, particularly when markets are volatile or an ETF has relatively low liquidity.

Using limit orders can also help investors control the price at which their ETF units are bought or sold instead of relying entirely on the prevailing market order.

The new rules are primarily designed to improve the way ETFs respond to changes in their underlying assets. Investors should therefore understand the difference between an ETF’s NAV and its exchange-traded market price before making investment decisions.

Why These Changes Matter for Gold and Silver Investors

Gold and silver are traded globally, meaning their international prices can change significantly outside Indian market hours. When Indian exchanges reopen, precious metal ETFs may need to adjust quickly to these overnight movements.

The revised price-band mechanism and pre-open auction are designed to provide ETFs with greater flexibility and potentially improve the price-discovery process when such gaps occur.

For investors, the key takeaway is that gold and silver ETF trading may behave differently under the new framework, especially during periods of sharp international price movements.

FAQs

1. What are the major changes SEBI has made to ETF trading?

SEBI has revised several ETF trading rules, including the method used to determine the base price, price bands, pre-open trading and close-out process. The revised framework came into effect on September 7, 2026, with the broader objective of improving ETF price discovery and keeping market prices more closely aligned with underlying asset values.

2. What has changed for gold and silver ETFs?

Gold and silver ETFs will now have an initial 6% price band, which can be widened in 3% increments without an upper limit. They will also have a pre-open call auction at the beginning of the trading session. These changes are particularly relevant because international gold and silver prices can move sharply while Indian markets are closed.

3. Will gold and silver ETFs always trade at their NAV after the new SEBI rules?

No. The new framework does not guarantee that an ETF’s market price will always be equal to its Net Asset Value (NAV). Gold and silver ETFs can still trade at a premium or discount depending on demand, supply, liquidity and market conditions.

4. What is the new base price for ETFs under the revised rules?

Under the new framework, the ETF’s base price is linked to the previous trading day’s closing price, calculated using the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of trades during the final 30 minutes of that session. This replaces the earlier approach that used the ETF’s T-2 NAV as the base price.

5. What should investors check before trading gold or silver ETFs?

Investors should consider checking the ETF’s indicative NAV (iNAV) before placing an order, particularly during periods of high volatility or when liquidity is low. Using limit orders can also help investors control their execution price. The new SEBI framework does not change ETF returns, costs or taxation.

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The proposal forms part of SEBI’s review and expansion of the SEBI (Vault Managers) Regulations, 2021. The objective is to create a harmonised vaulting framework covering physical gold, silver and other precious metals held as underlying assets for regulated financial products.

Under the proposed framework, vault managers would be responsible for bullion linked to Electronic Gold Receipts (EGRs), bullion ETFs, bullion derivatives and any other bullion-related instruments notified by SEBI.

At present, the vault manager framework mainly applies to physical gold backing EGRs traded on recognised stock exchanges. Vault managers receive, store and safeguard the physical gold and support the creation and extinguishment of EGRs.

The 2021 regulations already establish requirements covering registration, governance, net worth, risk management, internal controls, insurance, record keeping, reconciliation, audits, grievance redressal and business continuity. SEBI now wants to extend these safeguards to a wider set of financial products involving physical precious metals.

Why SEBI Wants Common Vaulting Rules

SEBI said the existing framework provides a strong foundation that can be expanded to cover additional products requiring secure custody of physical bullion.

“Given the rapid growth of physically backed precious metal products and the increasing concentration of investor assets in a limited number of vaults, extending the Vault Manager regulatory framework to cover storage of gold, silver and other precious metals underlying ETFs and derivatives on such bullion would mitigate operational risks, ensure regulatory consistency across similar custody activities and strengthen investor protection in the Indian securities market,” SEBI said.

The regulator has therefore proposed “a harmonised vaulting regime applicable to all physical bullion, including gold, silver and such precious metals, which are the underlying of Sebi-regulated products and are held pursuant to Sebi regulatory requirements”.

The proposed regime would introduce consistent requirements for vault infrastructure, governance, eligibility, operational controls, purity verification, insurance, cybersecurity, business continuity, auditing, inspection, record maintenance and risk management.

According to SEBI, common standards would also make regulatory supervision more effective and provide greater confidence to investors holding bullion through regulated financial products.

“It would also facilitate effective supervision by Sebi, and enhance investor confidence by ensuring that all investor-owned bullion held for Sebi-regulated products are subject to a common and robust regulatory framework, irrespective of the product through which such exposure is obtained,” it said.

Gold and Silver Markets Have Expanded

SEBI noted that India’s bullion market has undergone substantial changes with the expansion of products such as gold ETFs, silver ETFs and bullion-backed derivatives.

India remains one of the world’s largest gold-consuming markets, while electronic gold products have expanded as investors increasingly look for alternatives to directly holding physical bullion. The proposed changes are intended to ensure that the physical metal supporting these financial products is governed by consistent custody standards.

The consultation paper also proposes a circular outlining the framework for EGRs and operational guidelines for vaulting services covering bullion-related instruments specified by SEBI.

Public Comments Invited Until September 1

SEBI has invited stakeholders and members of the public to submit comments on the consultation paper and proposed regulatory changes until September 1.

If implemented, the expanded framework would bring physical bullion held against different SEBI-regulated products under a common set of standards, potentially strengthening operational safeguards, transparency and investor protection across India’s growing bullion market.

FAQs

1. What has SEBI proposed for gold and silver vaults?

SEBI has proposed expanding the existing Vault Managers Regulations, 2021, so they cover physical gold, silver and other precious metals underlying a wider range of SEBI-regulated products, including ETFs and bullion derivatives.

2. Which products could come under the expanded vaulting framework?

The proposed framework would cover physical bullion backing Electronic Gold Receipts, bullion ETFs, bullion derivatives and any other bullion-related instruments that SEBI may specify.

3. What is the current role of vault managers under SEBI rules?

Under the existing framework, vault managers primarily store and safeguard physical gold underlying EGRs traded on recognised stock exchanges. They also facilitate the creation and extinguishment of EGRs.

4. Why does SEBI want a harmonised vaulting regime?

SEBI believes common standards could reduce operational risks and create consistency in areas such as vault infrastructure, purity verification, insurance, cybersecurity, audits, record keeping and risk management. The framework is also intended to strengthen investor protection and confidence.

5. Until when can stakeholders submit comments on SEBI’s proposal?

SEBI has invited public comments on the consultation paper and proposed changes until September 1, 2026. Stakeholders can provide feedback before the regulator considers further action on the proposed framework.

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Although physical investment in gold bars and coins improved compared with a year earlier, it was not enough to compensate for substantial ETF withdrawals that dominated the quarter.

ETF Outflows Were the Biggest Reason Behind the Decline

The report highlights that ETF outflows were the primary factor responsible for the sharp fall in US gold demand.

Overall US gold demand declined to 7.9 tonnes in Q2 2026, far below the country’s long-term quarterly average of around 90 tonnes.

The biggest drag came from US-listed physically backed gold ETFs, which recorded another major wave of selling in June. Holdings declined by 40 tonnes during the month, following relatively stable flows in April and May.

According to WGC, the Q2 pullback was largely driven by short-term investment behaviour rather than weakness across the broader gold market, as positive demand from other sectors could not offset ETF liquidation.

ETF Selling Was Concentrated, Not Continuous

One of the key findings in the report is that ETF weakness was concentrated rather than persistent throughout the first half of 2026.

Most of the selling occurred during March and June, representing two separate liquidation episodes instead of a prolonged investor exit from gold.

WGC noted that if these two months are excluded, US gold-backed ETFs would actually have recorded net inflows of around 65 tonnes during the first half of the year.

This suggests that investors were primarily reacting to specific market events instead of abandoning gold as a long-term investment.

Why Investors Sold Gold ETFs

The report identifies several factors that encouraged ETF outflows during H1 2026:

• Investors reduced portfolio risk and booked profits after gold reached record highs.
• Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar increased the opportunity cost of holding gold.
• Expectations that the US Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer weakened ETF demand.
• Gold’s price correction in June also encouraged short-term liquidation.

Despite these pressures, WGC believes the ETF selling reflected temporary portfolio adjustments rather than a structural shift away from gold.

Bar and Coin Investment Improved

While ETF demand weakened, physical investment in gold bars and coins showed encouraging signs of resilience. Demand increased compared with the same period last year as many investors used price corrections as buying opportunities.

However, purchases moderated from the exceptionally strong first quarter because gold prices remained largely range-bound during Q2.

According to WGC, two-way trading remained active, with some investors taking profits while long-term buyers accumulated gold during market pullbacks.

Jewellery Demand Remained Under Pressure

High gold prices continued to affect jewellery purchases across the United States.

Consumers increasingly shifted toward:

• Lighter-weight jewellery
• Lower-karat products
• Affordable designs

The report noted that luxury jewellery remained relatively resilient, while the mass-market segment experienced the sharpest slowdown.

Although jewellery volumes declined, the overall value of jewellery sales increased because of elevated gold prices.

Technology Demand Stayed Stable

Gold demand from the technology sector remained relatively steady. Growing demand from the electronics industry helped offset weakness in industrial applications such as dentistry, where higher bullion prices increased manufacturing costs.

Retail Investors Continued to Prefer Gold

WGC’s discussions with North American bullion dealers revealed that gold remained more popular than silver among retail investors during Q2.

Key retail trends included:

• Trading activity returned to more normal levels after exceptionally high volumes earlier in the year.
• Long-term investors continued to book profits at record prices.
• Many investors bought gold during temporary price declines.
• Investment bars remained the preferred product because they offered greater gold exposure per dollar invested.

Investment Expected to Remain the Main Driver of Demand

Looking ahead, the World Gold Council believes investment demand will continue to be the primary source of growth for the US gold market.

Persistent geopolitical uncertainty is expected to support investor interest in gold. However, WGC cautions that ETF flows are likely to remain highly sensitive to:

• US Treasury yields
• Federal Reserve policy expectations
• Strength of the US Dollar
• Global geopolitical developments

As a result, while short-term ETF flows may remain volatile, the Council believes the long-term strategic case for gold remains firmly intact.

FAQs

1. Why did US gold demand decline in Q2 2026?

The main reason was significant outflows from US-listed physically backed gold ETFs. Although demand for bars, coins, jewellery, and technology provided some support, it was insufficient to offset the large ETF withdrawals.

2. Were ETF outflows consistent throughout the first half of 2026?

No. The World Gold Council said most ETF selling was concentrated in March and June, indicating two distinct liquidation events rather than continuous investor selling throughout the period.

3. Did physical gold investment improve during Q2 2026?

Yes. Demand for gold bars and coins increased compared with the same period last year, as many investors used price corrections to accumulate gold. However, investment moderated compared with the exceptionally strong first quarter.

4. How did high gold prices affect jewellery demand?

Higher bullion prices continued to reduce jewellery volumes, with consumers increasingly choosing lighter-weight and lower-karat products. Premium jewellery performed relatively better than the mass-market segment.

5. What is the World Gold Council’s outlook for US gold demand?

WGC expects investment demand to remain the primary growth driver. While ETF flows could remain volatile due to interest rates, bond yields, and the US Dollar, geopolitical uncertainty and long-term portfolio diversification are expected to continue supporting gold demand.

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While investor demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains weak, analysts believe several technical and fundamental indicators suggest that gold’s recent correction may be nearing its final stages.

ETF Outflows Highlight Weak Investor Sentiment

Gold-backed ETFs continued to experience significant outflows during June, with investors withdrawing 8.9 billion dollar, making it the second-largest monthly outflow on record. The only larger withdrawal occurred in March, when ETF outflows reached 11.7 billion dollar.

StoneX noted that ETF flows are currently on track for their weakest quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2024. However, extreme investor pessimism is often viewed as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that selling pressure could be close to exhaustion.

Historical Seasonality Favors Gold Bulls

Seasonal data dating back to 2000 shows that June has historically been one of the weakest months for gold, recording a win rate of just 40% and generally producing negative returns.

However, the seasonal trend improves significantly during the following months. Gold has historically posted a 56% win rate in July, increasing to 64% in August, while average gains and market volatility also tend to strengthen.

According to StoneX, improving seasonal patterns could provide additional support if investor confidence continues to recover.

Gold Continues to Hold Key Support Level

Despite multiple attempts by sellers to push prices lower, gold has successfully defended the important 4,000 per ounce dollar support level.

StoneX said the market has failed to record a weekly close below this level, indicating that buyers continue to absorb selling pressure. At the same time, rising open interest in the futures market suggests growing participation from institutional traders.

The report also notes that managed money positions have gradually become more constructive, pointing to improving market confidence.

Options Market Reflects Improving Sentiment

Another encouraging development has emerged from the options market.

During the past two weeks, traders have increased their exposure to call options relative to put options, indicating growing optimism toward higher gold prices. Although this is not considered a standalone bullish signal, StoneX believes it complements improving futures positioning and seasonal strength.

Middle East Tensions Continue Supporting Gold

Gold has now recorded gains for four consecutive trading sessions, supported in part by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The return of safe-haven demand has helped strengthen prices, while ongoing uncertainty in global markets continues to provide additional support for the precious metal.

Technical Outlook: 4,200 Dollar Remains the Key Resistance

StoneX identifies 4,200 dollar per ounce as the next major technical resistance level, where previous highs and monthly pivot levels converge.

Analysts believe gold could temporarily consolidate before attempting a breakout. If prices successfully move above 4,200 dollar, the next major upside target would be around 4,400 dollar per ounce later in the third quarter.

Market Outlook

Although gold continues to face pressure from weak ETF demand, StoneX believes improving technical momentum, favorable seasonal patterns, resilient support above $4,000, and strengthening futures and options positioning are creating conditions for a potential recovery. If these trends continue, the precious metal could be preparing for a stronger second half of the year.

FAQs

1. Why does StoneX believe gold’s outlook is improving?

StoneX cites improving technical momentum, supportive seasonal trends, stronger futures positioning, and resilient price support as signs that gold could be preparing for a recovery.

2. Why are ETF outflows important for gold?

Large ETF outflows indicate weak investor demand, but they can also signal overly bearish market sentiment, which often precedes a price rebound.

3. Why are July and August considered positive months for gold?

Historical data shows that gold has delivered stronger average returns and higher winning percentages during July and August compared with June.

4. What is the key support level for gold?

StoneX identifies 4,000 dollar per ounce as the most important support level, which has held despite repeated selling attempts.

5. What are the next major price targets for gold?

The report identifies 4,200 dollar per ounce as the next major resistance level. A successful breakout above it could open the path toward 4,400 dollar per ounce.

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The report suggests that although overall demand remains below peak levels, consumers and investors have started taking advantage of the recent correction in gold prices, helping stabilize the domestic market.

Gold Prices Declined Before Recovering Slightly

International and domestic gold prices witnessed a significant correction during June. Global gold prices fell to nearly 4,000 Dollars per ounce, marking their lowest level in several months, while domestic prices slipped to around 141,000 Rupees per 10 grams, a six-month low.

Despite the correction, Indian gold prices have continued to outperform international markets on a year-to-date basis. The World Gold Council attributes this resilience largely to the increase in India’s gold import duty and the depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the U.S. Dollar.

Market analysts note that stronger expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, a firmer Dollar, and increased investor preference for equities contributed to the weakness in international gold prices.

Domestic Gold Discounts Continue to Narrow

The report highlights that gold discounts in India’s domestic market have reduced considerably from the unusually high levels recorded following the import duty hike earlier this year.

Although discounts widened modestly again during mid-July, they remain far below previous peaks, indicating that the domestic market is gradually returning to normal trading conditions.

The availability of recycled gold through jewellery exchange programs has helped maintain sufficient supply across the market.

Jewellery Demand Shows Signs of Recovery

Following a relatively weak period between mid-May and mid-June, consumer demand for gold jewellery has started improving.

Retailers reported that lower gold prices, stable market conditions, attractive promotional offers, exchange schemes, and flexible payment options have encouraged customers to resume purchases.

Apart from wedding-related demand, jewellers have also started receiving advance orders from retailers preparing for the upcoming festive season beginning in August.

Old Gold Exchange Continues to Grow

One of the strongest trends identified by the World Gold Council is the increasing popularity of exchanging old jewellery for new purchases.

Following the import duty increase, many retailers reported a noticeable rise in exchange transactions. In several cases, exchanged jewellery now represents a substantial share of total jewellery sales, helping improve domestic gold availability while reducing the need for fresh imports.

Listed Jewellery Retailers Report Strong Quarterly Growth

Leading listed jewellery companies delivered healthy business performance during the April–June quarter.

Many retailers reported strong year-on-year revenue growth, supported by seasonal festivals, Akshaya Tritiya demand, and the summer wedding season.

Growth was driven by higher customer footfall, larger average purchase values, and continued expansion of retail store networks across India, reflecting confidence in long-term jewellery demand.

Gold ETF Investments Rebound Strongly

Indian investors increased allocations to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during June despite global ETF outflows.

The World Gold Council reported that June recorded the strongest monthly ETF inflows since February, as investors viewed lower gold prices as an attractive buying opportunity.

Investor participation also expanded significantly, with a large number of new investment accounts added during the month.

Digital Gold Demand Remains Resilient

The report also highlighted renewed strength in digital gold investments.

Purchases made through UPI-based digital gold platforms increased during June, with both transaction values and estimated buying volumes reaching their highest levels in three months.

This suggests that investors continue to use digital platforms as a convenient method of accumulating gold during periods of price weakness.

Gold Imports Fall to One-Year Low

India’s gold imports declined for the second consecutive month during June, reaching their lowest level in nearly a year.

According to the report, softer consumer demand, adequate inventories within the supply chain, and increased availability of recycled gold reduced the requirement for fresh imports.

Even though import volumes declined, the overall value of imports remained higher than a year earlier because of elevated average gold prices.

FAQ’s

1. What are the key highlights of the World Gold Council’s latest India Gold Market Update?

The report highlights improving jewellery demand, record ETF inflows since February, stronger digital gold purchases, lower gold imports, and rising old-gold exchange activity. Despite softer overall demand, lower prices encouraged both consumers and investors to increase their exposure to gold.

2. Why did jewellery demand improve even though the gold market remained mixed?

Lower gold prices made jewellery purchases more attractive for consumers. Retail promotional campaigns, exchange offers, flexible payment options, wedding demand, and advance festive-season buying also helped revive jewellery sales after a relatively weak period.

3. Why have India’s gold imports declined in recent months?

Gold imports fell because domestic demand softened, supply-chain inventories remained sufficient, and recycled gold from exchange programs became increasingly available. This reduced the need for jewellers and traders to import additional bullion despite stable consumer interest.

4. How did Indian gold ETFs perform during June 2026?

Indian Gold ETFs recorded their strongest monthly inflows since February as investors viewed the price correction as an attractive buying opportunity. Investor participation also increased significantly, with thousands of new investment accounts being added during the month.

5. What does the World Gold Council expect for India’s gold market going forward?

The World Gold Council believes jewellery demand could continue improving ahead of the festive and wedding seasons, while ETF investments and digital gold purchases may remain supported if gold prices stay relatively stable. However, global interest rates, currency movements, and international gold prices will continue to influence market sentiment.

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Although every major region reported net outflows during June, Asian investors continued to dominate global demand throughout the first six months of the year, offsetting losses in North America and maintaining positive global ETF inflows.

June 2026 Gold ETF Highlights

• Global gold ETFs recorded net outflows of 8.9 billion US dollars in June.
• Total assets under management (AUM) declined to 526 billion US dollars.
• Collective gold holdings fell by 74 tonnes to 4,047 tonnes.
• Despite June’s weakness, H1 2026 net inflows remained positive at 8 billion US dollars.
• Total gold holdings increased by 18 tonnes during the first half of the year.

The World Gold Council noted that the decline in ETF assets was driven largely by falling gold prices rather than widespread investor liquidation over the entire six-month period.

Asia Emerges as the Strongest Gold ETF Market

Asia remained the standout performer in the global gold ETF market during the first half of 2026.

The region attracted approximately 12 billion US dollars in net inflows during H1, marking its strongest first-half performance on record. While Chinese ETF investors reduced holdings in June following improving equity markets and softer gold prices, the earlier months of the year generated enough demand to keep Asia firmly ahead of other regions.

India was one of the few bright spots in June, with investors continuing to buy gold ETFs as lower prices were viewed as an attractive buying opportunity.

North America Records Weakest First Half Since 2013

North American gold ETFs remained under pressure throughout June.

Funds in the region lost 5.5 billion US dollars during the month, pushing total H1 outflows to 7.7 billion US dollars, the weakest first-half performance in more than a decade.

According to the report, expectations of higher US interest rates, rising real bond yields, and a stronger US dollar reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. Investor sentiment was also influenced by inflation concerns linked to geopolitical tensions.

European Gold ETFs Also Witness Selling Pressure

European-listed gold ETFs recorded 818 million US dollars in net outflows during June.

Despite the monthly decline, European funds still generated 3.2 billion US dollars in net inflows during the first half of 2026.

Other Markets See Modest Outflows

Gold ETFs listed outside the major regions also recorded small investor withdrawals during June.

Australian funds posted the largest decline within this group, while South African products also experienced moderate outflows. Nevertheless, these markets remained in positive territory for the year overall.

Gold Trading Activity Remains Historically Strong

Although trading activity cooled during June compared with previous months, average global gold trading volumes during the first half of 2026 reached record-high levels, highlighting continued investor interest in the precious metals market.

Gold ETF Outlook for the Second Half of 2026

The World Gold Council believes gold ETF demand could stabilize during the second half of 2026.

While expectations of higher interest rates continue to weigh on investment demand, ongoing geopolitical risks, uncertain global economic growth, and financial market volatility may encourage investors to maintain exposure to gold as a defensive asset and portfolio diversifier.

Key Takeaways

• June 2026 recorded 8.9 billion US dollars in global gold ETF outflows.
• H1 2026 remained positive with 8 billion US dollars in net inflows.
• Global ETF assets stood at 526 billion US dollars at the end of June.
• Gold holdings totaled 4,047 tonnes, up 18 tonnes during H1.
• Asia led global inflows, while North America posted its weakest first half since 2013.
• India remained one of the few markets attracting ETF inflows during June.

FAQ’s

1. Why did global gold ETFs experience outflows in June 2026?

Global gold ETFs recorded significant outflows in June as weaker gold prices, rising real bond yields, a stronger US dollar, and expectations of higher interest rates encouraged investors to reduce their exposure to gold-backed investment products.

2. Did gold ETF investments remain positive in the first half of 2026?

Yes. Despite heavy selling in June, global gold ETFs still posted 8 billion US dollars in net inflows during the first six months of 2026, reflecting strong investor demand earlier in the year.

3. Which region led global gold ETF inflows in H1 2026?

Asia emerged as the strongest-performing region, attracting approximately 12 billion US dollars in net inflows during the first half of 2026. India remained one of the few markets that continued to receive fresh investments even during June’s broader market decline.

4. Why did North American gold ETFs underperform?

North American funds experienced persistent outflows due to expectations of higher US interest rates, increasing real yields, a stronger US dollar, and improving returns in other asset classes. These factors reduced the attractiveness of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold.

5. What is the outlook for gold ETFs in the second half of 2026?

The World Gold Council expects gold ETF flows to stabilize during the second half of 2026. Continued geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over global economic growth, and financial market volatility could support investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and long-term portfolio hedge.

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According to the latest data, global gold ETF assets under management (AUM) fell to 526 billion dollar by the end of June. The decline was driven primarily by weaker gold prices during the first half of the year, while total gold holdings dropped by 74 tonnes in June to 4,047 tonnes.

First-Half Flows Stay Positive Despite June Sell-Off

Although June recorded significant outflows, global gold ETFs still attracted US$8 billion in net inflows during the first six months of 2026. Asian funds emerged as the strongest contributor, delivering the region’s highest first-half inflows on record. Europe also posted healthy gains, while North America remained the only region to register net outflows during the period.

Collectively, gold ETF holdings increased by 18 tonnes during the first half of the year, even as lower bullion prices reduced the overall value of assets under management.

North America Posts Weakest First Half Since 2013

North American gold ETFs recorded the largest withdrawals in June, losing 5.5 billion dollar. Total outflows for the first half reached 7.7 billion dollar, marking the region’s weakest performance since 2013.

Investor sentiment was pressured by expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy. Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, combined with inflation concerns linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, strengthened expectations for higher interest rates. Rising real bond yields and a firmer U.S. dollar also reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Europe and Asia Show Mixed Trends

European gold ETFs reported 818 million dollar in June outflows after the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points amid inflation concerns. Weak gold prices and continued selling in currency-hedged investment products also weighed on regional demand.

Asian funds experienced 2.3 billion dollar in outflows during June—the largest monthly decline on record for the region. Most of the selling came from Chinese funds as improving equity markets encouraged investors to shift away from gold. Japanese investors also reduced holdings following the Bank of Japan’s interest rate increase.

However, India stood out as an exception, attracting fresh inflows as investors viewed lower gold prices as an attractive buying opportunity and maintained a positive long-term outlook for the precious metal.

Outlook Remains Constructive

Despite recent outflows, market analysts believe geopolitical uncertainty, slowing global economic growth, financial market volatility, and inflation risks could continue supporting long-term demand for gold ETFs.

If these uncertainties persist, investors may continue using gold as a strategic safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of heightened market volatility.

FAQ’s

1. Why did global gold ETFs experience heavy outflows in June 2026?

Gold ETFs recorded 8.9 billion dollar in outflows as investors reacted to weaker gold prices, expectations of higher interest rates, and a stronger U.S. dollar. These factors increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, prompting many investors to reduce their exposure to bullion-backed investment funds.

2. Did gold ETF investments remain positive for the first half of 2026?

Yes. Despite June’s significant withdrawals, global gold ETFs still posted 8 billion dollar in net inflows during the first half of 2026. Strong buying from Asian investors, particularly during the early months of the year, helped offset losses recorded in June.

3. Which region recorded the largest gold ETF outflows?

North America experienced the biggest withdrawals, with 5.5 billion dollar leaving gold ETFs in June and 7.7 billion dollar in total outflows during the first half of 2026. It marked the region’s weakest first-half performance in more than a decade.

4. Why did India attract gold ETF inflows while other Asian markets saw outflows?

Unlike China and Japan, Indian investors viewed the decline in gold prices as a buying opportunity. Continued optimism about gold’s long-term prospects and demand for portfolio diversification supported fresh inflows into Indian gold ETFs during June.

5. What could influence gold ETF demand in the second half of 2026?

Future gold ETF flows will likely depend on Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends, geopolitical developments, currency movements, and global economic conditions. Persistent uncertainty and market volatility could encourage investors to maintain or increase their allocation to gold as a safe-haven investment.

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The Paper Market Panic: Why ETFs Are Bleeding

The rate-cut thesis that aggressively drove gold to its historic peak of 5,595 Dollar in January 2026 has completely reversed. As an Iran-war-driven oil spike reignites inflation fears, the Federal Reserve has taken a decidedly hawkish turn under Chair Kevin Warsh, completely reshaping market expectations.

Current Price Actions:

• Gold & Silver Levels: Gold is trading near 4,009 Dollar an ounce, partially recovering from a sharp break below 4,000 Dollar. Silver sits at 58.03 Dollar. Both metals have shed roughly 29% from their January highs.
• The Dollar Strength: The US dollar has climbed to a 13-month high.
• Rate Hike Probabilities: According to the CME FedWatch tool, rate-hike odds for September have surged to roughly 68%, up from a mere 29% just one week prior.

The 298-Tonnes Structural Ceiling

According to Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper, approximately 298 tonnes of gold inside ETFs is now held at a financial loss (underwater) at current prices around 4,000 dollar. This is a significant jump from the 270 tonnes held at a loss when gold was trading above 4,250 dollar.

Why This Matters: This massive block of underwater gold—representing roughly 38 billion dollar worth of metal—acts as a structural supply ceiling on any near-term market recovery. These ETF holders are not strategic, long-term buyers; they are traders waiting to exit. Every dollar the price moves back up toward their entry points creates intense break-even selling pressure.

Because of how gold ETFs operate, a wave of redemptions forces authorized participants to deliver the physical underlying metal back into the open market, turning paper liquidations into actual physical supply events. Gold-backed ETFs recorded net outflows of 16 metric tonnes in May 2026 and bled further into the first half of June, despite a brief 1.1 billion dollar inflow snapback that ended a four-week streak of redemptions.

The Sovereign Counter-Weight: Central Banks on a Buying Spree

On the other side of the ledger, a completely different tier of buyers is stepping up. Sovereign reserve managers do not operate with retail stop-losses or quarterly rebalancing pressures; instead, they possess a mathematical incentive to accumulate more tonnage when prices decline to meet strategic long-term allocations.

Record Institutional Participation:

• The WGC Survey: The World Gold Council’s 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey reveals that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months.
• Unprecedented Buying Plans: A record 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed plan to add directly to their own reserves—marking the broadest participation in the survey’s nine-year history.
• Q1 Inflow Data: Central banks accumulated a net 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, exceeding both the prior quarter and the five-year average.

Recent Sovereign Activity:

• Poland: Added 14 tonnes in April alone, bringing its year-to-date total to 45 tonnes.
• China: The People’s Bank of China extended an 18-consecutive-month buying streak.
• Czech Republic: The Czech National Bank added 2 tonnes.

A Structural Shift in Global Reserves

This massive divergence signals a fundamental regime change in who controls the marginal pricing of gold. Throughout 2025, Western ETF buyers dominated, chasing rate-cut expectations and driving gold up 45% from $3,865 in October 2025 to $5,595 in January 2026. However, when the geopolitical landscape shifted in March, those traders panicked.

Central banks have successfully absorbed a massive portion of that paper selling. According to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) June 2026 International Role of the Euro report, gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset. Gold now commands 27% of global central bank holdings, compared to 22% for Treasuries.

Furthermore, 74% of central banks surveyed by the WGC expect the US dollar’s share of global reserves to steadily decline over the next five years, indicating that the structural drive to accumulate non-dollar assets is a multi-year reallocation process that will outlast temporary 2026 macro shifts.

What Investors Should Watch Next

While the 298-tonne underwater ETF overhang is bound to cap any explosive near-term rallies, the sovereign bid provides an unyielding long-term floor. For patient physical precious metals investors, the infinite horizon of central banks carries far deeper pockets than fast-money paper traders.

Moving forward, investors must closely analyze key domestic indicators:

• PCE Inflation Gauges: The May PCE inflation reading will heavily dictate rate-hike probabilities. A core PCE reading at or above the 3.3–3.4% consensus will extend the dollar’s strength and lock the ETF overhang in place. Conversely, a soft print below 3.3% will ease September hike odds and lift break-even selling pressure.
• Upcoming Fed Meeting: The next critical monetary policy decisions will unravel at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29.

FAQ’s

1. Why are gold prices falling despite strong central bank demand?
Gold prices are under pressure because ETF investors are selling on expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar. However, central banks continue buying gold for long-term reserve diversification, helping support the market despite short-term weakness.

2. What is the significance of the 298-tonne ETF overhang?
Around 298 tonnes of gold held in ETFs are currently at a loss. If prices recover, many investors may sell to break even, creating significant selling pressure that could limit any sharp near-term rally in gold prices.

3. Why are central banks increasing their gold reserves?
Central banks are expanding gold holdings to diversify reserves, reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, strengthen financial stability, and protect against geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The World Gold Council survey indicates this trend is expected to continue.

4. How could Federal Reserve policy influence gold prices?
Future inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions will be crucial. Higher interest rates generally weaken gold by boosting bond yields and the U.S. dollar, while signs of easing inflation or lower rate-hike expectations could support a recovery in bullion prices.

5. What should investors monitor in the coming weeks?
Investors should closely watch the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, Federal Reserve meeting outcomes, ETF fund flows, U.S. dollar strength, and central bank gold purchases, as these factors are likely to determine gold’s near-term direction.

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In a stark reversal from the record-breaking rallies seen late last year, spot gold prices slipped below the 4,000 dollar per ounce threshold on Wednesday for the first time since November 2025. This downward trajectory represents an approximate 29% retreat from the all-time historic high of 5,594.82 dollar per ounce achieved in January.

Higher Interest Rates and Changing Macro Realities

According to Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke, ETF flows mirror broader U.S. monetary policy expectations. When interest rates are projected to remain elevated, non-yielding assets like bullion rapidly lose their luster.

• Inflation Fears Reignited: Expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts were the primary catalyst behind the 2025 gold boom. However, surging energy prices in the wake of the Iran war have revived global inflation concerns.
• Hawkish Shift: Central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have adopted a markedly aggressive monetary stance. Investors are no longer merely pricing in prolonged high rates; they are actively scaling up bets on additional rate hikes.
• Capital Diverting to AI: Financial experts note that rising interest rate forecasts alongside massive cash-raising efforts for Artificial Intelligence (AI) suggest a highly bullish medium-term outlook for the U.S. economy, keeping investor attention firmly focused away from safe-haven metals.

Inside the Numbers: ETF Outflows vs. Wall Street Forecasts

Data from the World Gold Council highlights that gold-backed ETFs recorded a net outflow of 16 metric tons in May. This selling pressure persisted aggressively through the first half of June. While funds managed to notch a minor weekly net inflow recovery, major global banking institutions are lowering their expectations.

ING

• Formally stated that ETF demand is likely to remain significantly less supportive of gold prices in 2026 compared with the strong contribution it provided throughout 2025.
• The bank believes weaker investor inflows into gold ETFs could continue to weigh on bullion prices.

Standard Chartered

• Revealed that at current gold prices below 4,000 dollar per ounce, more than 200 metric tons of gold held in global ETFs are now in loss-making territory.
• This development could negatively affect investor sentiment and future ETF demand.

Morgan Stanley

• Noted that its bullish gold price forecast of 5,200 dollar per ounce for the second half of 2026 is now heavily dependent on a recovery in ETF buying and lower oil prices.
• The bank considers such a scenario increasingly unlikely under current market conditions.

Goldman Sachs

• Softened its previously optimistic outlook by lowering its December 2026 gold price forecast.
• The firm also reduced its projected gold ETF demand, reflecting a more cautious stance toward the precious metals market.

Central Bank Demand Offers Critical Support

While soft ETF retail demand poses a structural headwind for spot bullion prices in the near term, precious metals retain a crucial layer of long-term defense.

Market analysts emphasize that official sector buying remains incredibly robust. Central banks globally are continuing to aggressively purchase gold bullion to diversify their sovereign reserves away from fiat currencies. If official sector institutional demand continues to expand at its current rapid clip, it has the structural capacity to fully insulate the market and make up for the shortfalls left behind by retreating ETF investors.

FAQ’s

1. Why are Gold ETFs experiencing outflows in 2026?
Gold ETFs are facing renewed selling pressure as investors increasingly expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer and potentially implement additional rate hikes. Higher rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold, prompting investors to move capital toward interest-bearing investments and growth-oriented sectors.

2. What caused gold prices to fall below $4,000 per ounce?
The decline has been driven by a combination of factors, including a stronger U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, persistent inflation concerns, and growing expectations of tighter monetary policy. These developments have triggered ETF outflows and reduced investor demand for gold, pushing prices below a key psychological support level.

3. How have major financial institutions changed their outlook on gold?
Several leading banks have adopted a more cautious stance. ING expects weaker ETF demand in 2026, Goldman Sachs has lowered its gold price forecast and ETF demand projections, while Morgan Stanley says its bullish target depends on a recovery in ETF buying. Standard Chartered also highlighted growing losses among ETF investors at current price levels.

4. What role do Gold ETFs play in influencing bullion prices?
Gold-backed ETFs are an important source of investment demand for the precious metal. When investors buy ETF shares, fund managers typically purchase physical gold, supporting prices. Conversely, sustained ETF outflows often result in gold sales, increasing market supply and placing downward pressure on bullion prices.

5. Can central bank gold purchases offset weak ETF demand?
Many analysts believe central bank buying could provide significant support to the gold market. Central banks around the world continue to increase gold reserves as part of diversification strategies away from traditional fiat currencies. Strong official-sector demand has the potential to partially or fully offset the impact of weaker ETF investment flows over the long term.

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वैश्विक आर्थिक दबाव (मैक्रो हेडविंड्स) और रियल यील्ड्स का असर

सोने के बाजार की मौजूदा स्थिति पर बात करते हुए सुकी कूपर ने कहा:

“हम उम्मीद करते हैं कि मैक्रो हेडविड्स (वैश्विक आर्थिक दबावों) के कारण आने वाले समय में सोने की कीमतें और अधिक संवेदनशील (vulnerable) हो सकती हैं। सोने की कीमतों ने एक बार फिर रियल यील्ड्स (वास्तविक रिटर्न) से संकेत लेना शुरू कर दिया है।”

कूपर ने इसके पीछे के कारणों को समझाते हुए बताया कि पारंपरिक रूप से ईटीएफ (ETF) बाजारों में निवेश की मांग का संबंध फिजिकल मार्केट के अन्य ढांचागत कारकों की तुलना में रियल यील्ड्स से अधिक होता है। बढ़ती मुद्रास्फीति (महंगाई) के कारण अब बाजार इस बात की उम्मीद लगा रहा है कि फेडरल रिजर्व साल के अंत तक ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी कर सकता है। बाजार की ये उम्मीदें रियल यील्ड्स को ऊपर ले जा रही हैं, जिससे सोने जैसी बिना ब्याज या रिटर्न देने वाली संपत्ति (non-yielding asset) को रखने की अवसर लागत (opportunity cost) बढ़ जाती है।

उन्होंने डेटा साझा करते हुए आगे कहा:

“मई में टैक्टिकल पोजीशनिंग सकारात्मक रही थी, लेकिन ईटीपी (ETP) होल्डिंग्स में गिरावट आई (-16 टन) और जून में भी यह गिरावट जारी रही।”

इन महत्वपूर्ण टेक्निकल प्राइस लेवल्स पर रखें नजर

कूपर के एनालिसिस के अनुसार, निवेशकों को आने वाले समय में सोने के कुछ खास तकनीकी स्तरों पर नजर रखने की सख्त जरूरत है:

• 4,250 डॉलर प्रति औंस (ounce): निवेशकों को सबसे पहले इसी तकनीकी मूल्य स्तर पर नजर रखनी होगी। कूपर के मुताबिक, गोल्ड ईटीपी फ्लो के विश्लेषण से पता चलता है कि हाल ही में 4,250 डॉलर/oz के निचले स्तर पर कम से कम 270 टन की होल्डिंग्स घाटे (loss-making territory) में हैं। यदि हम मान लें कि इस साल की शुद्ध निकासी (net redemptions) मुनाफे वाली थी और FIFO (फर्स्ट-इन, फर्स्ट-आउट) के आधार पर कम कीमत के स्तर पर स्थापित थी, तो यह आंकड़ा बढ़कर 465 टन हो जाता है।
• 4,100 डॉलर प्रति औंस (ounce): शॉर्ट-टर्म (near term) में ईटीपी होल्डिंग्स काफी कमजोर हैं और इससे सोने की कीमतों में और गिरावट का जोखिम बढ़ सकता है, जिसका अगला टेक्निकल सपोर्ट लेवल 4,100 डॉलर/oz के आसपास है।
• 4,000 डॉलर प्रति औंस (ounce): उन्होंने आगे चेतावनी दी कि अगर कीमतें गिरकर 4,000 डॉलर/oz तक आती हैं, तो घाटे वाली पोजीशन बढ़कर 298 टन हो जाएगी।

पैनिक सेलिंग का खतरा और रिकवरी की उम्मीद

संक्षेप में, कूपर यह चेतावनी दे रही हैं कि जैसे-जैसे सोने की कीमत इन स्तरों (4,250 डॉलर -> 4,100 डॉलर -> 4,000 डॉलर) से नीचे जाएगी, वैसे-वैसे निवेशकों का घाटा बढ़ता जाएगा। इस घाटे से बचने के लिए निवेशक घबराहट (Panic) में अपना सोना और ज्यादा बेच सकते हैं, जिससे कीमतें और तेजी से नीचे गिर सकती हैं।

कूपर ने अंत में यह भी जोड़ा कि अमेरिकी डॉलर (U.S. Dollar) में फिर से आ रही मजबूती भी सोने के लिए मुश्किलें खड़ी कर रही है; हालांकि, इसके बावजूद वह अभी भी आशावादी हैं कि मध्यम अवधि (medium term) में सोने की कीमतें फिर से वापसी (recover) कर सकती हैं।

सोने, चांदी के भाव से जुड़े सवाल जवाब, Gold Silver Price FAQ

1. स्टैंडर्ड चार्टर्ड ने सोने को लेकर क्या चेतावनी दी है?
स्टैंडर्ड चार्टर्ड की ग्लोबल हेड ऑफ कमोडिटीज रिसर्च सुकी कूपर ने कहा है कि गोल्ड ETF में बढ़ती बिकवाली के कारण आने वाले समय में सोने की कीमतों में और गिरावट देखने को मिल सकती है।

2. गोल्ड ETF की बिकवाली से सोने की कीमतों पर क्या असर पड़ सकता है?
यदि निवेशक घाटे वाली ETF होल्डिंग्स को बेचकर बाहर निकलते हैं, तो बाजार में बिकवाली का दबाव बढ़ सकता है, जिससे सोने की कीमतें और नीचे जा सकती हैं।

3. रियल यील्ड्स बढ़ने से सोने पर दबाव क्यों बढ़ता है?
सोना कोई ब्याज या नियमित रिटर्न नहीं देता। जब रियल यील्ड्स बढ़ती हैं, तो निवेशक अधिक रिटर्न देने वाली परिसंपत्तियों की ओर आकर्षित होते हैं, जिससे सोने की मांग कमजोर पड़ सकती है।

4. निवेशकों को किन प्रमुख तकनीकी स्तरों पर नजर रखनी चाहिए?
सुकी कूपर के अनुसार 4,250 डॉलर, 4,100 डॉलर और 4,000 डॉलर प्रति औंस ऐसे महत्वपूर्ण स्तर हैं, जहां से सोने में अतिरिक्त बिकवाली और अस्थिरता देखने को मिल सकती है।

5. क्या सोने में लंबी अवधि के लिए उम्मीद बनी हुई है?
हाँ। अल्पकालिक दबाव और संभावित गिरावट की आशंका के बावजूद, सुकी कूपर का मानना है कि मध्यम अवधि में सोना दोबारा रिकवरी कर सकता है और कीमतों में सुधार देखने को मिल सकता है।

1.यूट्यूब चैनल – Gold Price Today News (189K सब्सक्राइबर्स)

2.फेसबुक पेज – Gold Silver Price Today (118K फॉलोअर्स)

3. इंस्टाग्राम – Gold Price Today News (50K फॉलोअर्स)

4.X (ट्विटर) – @today_gold

5.टेलीग्रामग्रुप – Gold Silver Price

डिस्क्लेमर: ये न्यूज सिर्फ जानकारी के लिए बनाई गई है, निवेश या ट्रेडिंग की सलाह नहीं है। स्टोरी में दी गई राय एक्सपर्ट और ब्रोकरेज हाउस की है। गोल्ड प्राइस टुडे से जुड़े लोग निजी तौर पर सोने, चांदी की ट्रेडिंग नहीं करते हैं। हमारी सोने, चांदी में कोई पोजीशन नहीं है। किसी भी निवेश से पहले अपने वित्तीय सलाहकार की राय जरूर लें। सोने चांदी में निवेश जोखिम का काम है अपने विवेक का इस्तेमाल करें। आपको होने वाले किसी भी नुकसान की हमारी कोई जिम्मेदारी नहीं है।