Gold Poised for a Strong Rally Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Motilal Oswal Group forecasts a strong upside for gold prices, predicting a rally past ₹91,000 per 10 grams in the next three months. The firm attributes this to geopolitical tensions, rising U.S. debt, shifting interest rate expectations, and President Donald Trump’s leadership, calling 2025 the “Year of Volatility.”
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Gold has already surged over 10% in the first month of 2025, showing no major signs of weakness. The group’s quarterly report maintains a “Buy on Dips” strategy, expecting support at ₹78,000, with any decline toward ₹82,000 seen as a buying opportunity. Target levels stand at ₹88,500 and ₹91,500, while Comex gold is projected to hit $3,000–$3,100 per ounce, assuming USD/INR at 87.
“However, bouts of correction or profit booking could be witnessed from the higher side. We maintain Buy on Dips stance for Gold; in terms of price projections: support is near ₹78,000; any dips towards ₹82,000 could be used for accumulating further, for targets towards ₹88,500 and ₹91,500 on the domestic front & assuming USDINR at 87: $3,000 and $3,100 on Comex,” the Motilal Oswal report stated.
Geopolitical Developments Impacting Gold Prices
Global uncertainty continues to shape the market outlook:
- Trump’s Strategic Crypto Reserve
President Donald Trump announced the creation of a “strategic crypto reserve”, which will include Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana’s SOL, and Cardano’s ADA, marking his first explicit support for a crypto “reserve” rather than a “stockpile.” - Pressure on Zelensky to Resign
National security adviser Waltz suggested Ukraine needs new leadership, while Senator Marco Rubio confirmed he has not spoken to President Zelensky since their White House exchange. Meanwhile, Democrats criticized the White House for holding talks with Russian officials without Ukraine’s involvement. - Tariff Tensions Weigh on Market Sentiment
Trump announced a 25% trade tariff on Mexico and Canada from March 4, alongside an additional 10% tariff on China, leading to market jitters. However, his efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine have eased some safe-haven demand for gold.
Market Outlook & Technical Analysis
Gold & Silver Price Forecast
Despite short-term fluctuations, analysts expect gold and silver to hold key support levels in the international markets:
- Gold: Support at $2,800 per ounce, Resistance at $2,884–$2,900 per ounce
- Silver: Support at $29.80 per ounce, Resistance at $31.55–$31.80 per ounce
According to Manoj Kumar Jain, gold and silver will likely remain volatile this week due to movements in the dollar index and ongoing U.S. trade disputes.
- MCX Gold: Support at ₹83,820-₹83,500, Resistance at ₹84,500-₹84,850
- MCX Silver: Support at ₹93,650-₹93,000, Resistance at ₹95,000-₹95,850
Jain advises waiting for market stability before initiating fresh positions.
Kedia Commodity Outlook
- Gold: Long liquidation is underway, with open interest dropping by 7.11% to 14,040 contracts. Support is seen at ₹83,865, with a potential drop to ₹83,510, while resistance is at ₹84,745, with a possible move toward ₹85,270.
- Silver: Support is at ₹93,740, with a possible test of ₹93,145, while resistance is at ₹95,040, with potential upside toward ₹95,745.
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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of industry experts. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you consult a financial advisor. The team at Gold Price Today does not engage in personal buying, selling, or trading of gold or silver on exchanges. We are not responsible for any gains or losses incurred based on the information presented here
