India’s Record Gold Imports in November: Calculation Error Sparks Debate

India Gold Import error

India Gold Import error: India’s unprecedented gold import figures for November, estimated at ₹1.25 lakh crore with a 337% year-on-year surge, have come under scrutiny, as reports suggest a possible calculation error. According to Bloomberg, discrepancies may have arisen from officials double-counting gold shipments in warehouses following a shift in data reporting methodology introduced in July. This story is first reported by Bloomberg.

The Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) is now re-evaluating the data, with reconciliation efforts underway alongside the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC). CNBC reported via government sources that a detailed examination of November’s import data is in progress.

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The industry is abuzz with concerns over a potential 40-ton discrepancy in gold import records, with Bloomberg suggesting that the figures might have been overstated by as much as 50 tons—nearly 30% of the reported total imports for November.

Analysts have raised questions about the spike. “The rise in gold imports this November cannot be explained by festive demand alone and represents a meaningful step up in gold purchases for reasons unclear to us,” noted Nomura Holdings experts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi in a report following the trade data release.

The surge has also contributed to India’s trade deficit ballooning to $37.8 billion in November, driven by gold imports valued at $14.8 billion compared to $3.44 billion in the same month last year. The reduction of import duties on gold, from 15% to 6% in July, had been expected to stimulate demand, but the sharp rise in November exceeded expectations.

A key factor being examined is the integration of customs data systems. Previously, ‘warehousing’ and ‘ex-bond goods’ entries—typically not considered imports—were handled by SEZ Online, while ‘house consumption’ data, classified as actual imports, was processed by ICEGATE. Since July, ICEGATE has combined these data streams into a unified system, which could have caused the overestimation.

As authorities work to reconcile the data, the investigation is expected to clarify whether the surge reflects genuine market dynamics or a technical anomaly in the reporting system.

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