StoneX Report: Gold’s price trajectory remains dependent on a resolution of the Iran conflict, with the yellow metal likely to finish the year close to the current 4,000 dollar level, while silver will continue to take its cues from the gold price as it trades between 55 dollar and 60 dollar per ounce, according to the new StoneX Quarterly (Q3) Commodities Outlook.
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Gold Outlook Depends on Iran Conflict and Interest Rate Expectations
StoneX’s Head of Market Analysis for EMEA & Asia, Rhona O’Connell, said the firm’s earlier expectation of gold falling below 4,000 dollar per ounce materialized sooner than anticipated, with prices slipping below that level in late June as fresh investment demand weakened.
According to the report, gold’s near-term direction largely depends on developments surrounding the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. While geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven demand, investors remain cautious due to the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Federal Reserve Policy Remains a Key Market Driver
StoneX believes gold prices are currently being driven more by interest rate expectations than inflation concerns. Markets are pricing in the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike later this year as inflation remains above the central bank’s long-term target.
Higher interest rates generally reduce the attractiveness of gold because the precious metal does not generate interest income.
Central Bank Buying Could Limit Downside
Despite short-term pressure, StoneX expects continued buying by global central banks to provide long-term support for gold prices.
The report cited recent survey findings showing that a large majority of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months, reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic reserve asset.
Silver Expected to Follow Gold While Industrial Demand Strengthens
StoneX forecasts silver to trade within the 55 dollar to 60 dollar per ounce range in the near term, with prices continuing to follow gold’s overall trend.
The report also highlighted improving long-term fundamentals for silver, supported by growing demand from artificial intelligence technologies, electric vehicles, and the solar energy sector, while mine supply growth remains limited.
Market Risks Remain Elevated
StoneX expects gold to remain around the 4,000 dollar per ounce level for the remainder of the year, although short-term volatility is likely.
The report identified several potential bullish factors, including renewed Middle East tensions, continued central bank buying, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Potential downside risks include a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East, additional central bank tightening, weaker equity markets, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
FAQs
1. What is StoneX’s gold price forecast for 2026?
StoneX expects gold to end 2026 near 4,000 dollar per ounce, with prices remaining volatile but broadly stable around current levels.
2. What is the expected trading range for silver?
StoneX forecasts silver to trade between 55 dollar and 60 dollar per ounce, with price movements continuing to follow gold in the short term.
3. Which factors are expected to influence gold prices the most?
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, inflation expectations, and continued central bank gold purchases are expected to be the biggest drivers.
4. Why does StoneX remain positive on long-term silver demand?
The report expects stronger industrial demand from artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and solar energy, while limited mine supply could provide long-term support for silver prices.
5. What are the major risks for gold and silver prices?
A more hawkish Federal Reserve, additional interest rate hikes, easing geopolitical tensions, and weaker investor demand could pressure prices, while central bank buying and renewed global uncertainty may provide support.
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