Gold prices surged, nearing $2,700 per ounce, as optimism around a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and China’s monetary policy shift bolstered sentiment. The Fed Watch Tool now indicates an 86% probability of a rate cut during the December 18 Fed meeting. Meanwhile, renewed gold purchases by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added further support to the precious metal.
China’s Economic Policy Shift
China reported weaker-than-expected trade data for November, with exports rising 6.7% year-on-year and imports declining 3.9%. In response to slowing growth, China announced its first major monetary policy shift since 2010, signaling an “appropriately loose” stance aimed at stimulating domestic consumption and innovation. This policy adjustment was revealed after a Politburo meeting and is expected to influence the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference.
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Market Performance
In international markets, gold February futures closed at $2,685.80 per troy ounce, up 0.99%, while silver March futures ended at $32.611, up 3.24%. Domestically, gold February futures settled at ₹77,486 per 10 grams (up 1.13%), and silver March futures closed at ₹95,197 per kilogram (up 2.97%). These gains marked two-week highs for gold and four-week highs for silver.
Factors Driving Safe-Haven Demand
Heightened geopolitical tensions, including the political crisis in South Korea and instability in the Middle East, have supported safe-haven buying. Additionally, the PBoC’s purchase of 5 metric tons of gold in November—its first in six months—provided a tailwind for gold prices.
Expert Analysis
Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart noted that gold and silver prices could remain volatile this week due to fluctuations in the dollar index, geopolitical developments, and U.S. inflation data. However, he highlighted key support levels at $2,588 for gold and $29.88 for silver on a weekly closing basis.
Intraday Levels by Manoj Kumar Jain, Prithvi Finmart:
Gold (International): Support at $2,674–$2,654; resistance at $2,700–$2,722.
Silver (International): Support at $32.20–$31.84; resistance at $32.88–$33.20.
Gold (MCX): Support at ₹77,140–₹76,800; resistance at ₹77,770–₹78,050.
Silver (MCX): Support at ₹94,400–₹93,600; resistance at ₹96,000–₹96,650.
Trading Strategy:
Jain recommends buying gold around ₹77,150 with a stop loss at ₹76,800, targeting ₹77,800. For silver, he suggests buying near ₹94,500 with a stop loss at ₹93,650 and a target of ₹96,100.
Kedia Commodity analysts emphasized that gold is testing a crucial resistance at $2,665. A confirmed breakout could push prices toward $2,690 and November 24’s high of $2,720. Key downside supports are at $2,620 and $2,605.
Gold and silver prices are poised for further movement amid evolving macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties.
Key Events of the Week
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
United States
07:00 PM: Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Final Q3)
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
United States
07:00 PM: Core Inflation Rate MoM (NOV)
07:00 PM: Core Inflation Rate YoY (NOV)
07:00 PM: Inflation Rate MoM (NOV)
China
Central Economic Work Conference
Thursday, December 12, 2024
United States
07:00 PM: PPI MoM (NOV)
07:00 PM: Core PPI MoM (NOV)
07:00 PM: Initial Jobless Claims (DEC/07)
Euro Area
06:45 PM: ECB Interest Rate Decision
07:15 PM: ECB Press Conference
08:15 PM: ECB Economic Projections
08:45 PM: Speech by ECB President Lagarde
Friday, December 13, 2024
United States
03:00 AM: Fed Balance Sheet
07:00 PM: Export Prices MoM (NOV)
Geopolitical Tensions
Russia-Ukraine Conflic
Syria Crisis
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Gold Price Today 10 December
99.50~79400 (+900)
23 KT~77400
22 KT~74200
20 KT~67700
18 KT~61000
14 KT~48700
9999 SILVER:~96400 (+3100)
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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of industry experts. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you consult a financial advisor. The team at Gold Price Today does not engage in personal buying, selling, or trading of gold or silver on exchanges. We are not responsible for any gains or losses incurred based on the information presented here.