Gold prices bounced back above the critical $3,200 per ounce mark, while silver also climbed above $32. The renewed rally was supported by safe-haven demand following heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Reports from Turkey confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin declined to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for peace talks, dampening hopes of progress.
UBS Maintains Bullish Gold Outlook for 2025 and 2026
UBS continues to hold a bullish long-term view on gold. “Given the downside risks to growth, we think the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to ease its policy, thus creating a positive backdrop for gold,” said Joni Teves, Precious Metals Strategist at UBS, during a virtual media briefing. The bank has reaffirmed its gold price forecast of US$3,500 per ounce for both 2025 and 2026, although Teves warned of a potential slowdown in the rally by mid-to-late 2025.
Near-Term Consolidation Likely, Physical Demand Rising
Teves also highlighted a buying opportunity for investors. “For physical investors, gold demand has picked up across various regions during the first quarter of 2025, and we think this will continue for the remainder of the year,” she said, hinting at a healthy physical market backdrop even amid potential consolidation.
Japan’s Economy Contracts More Than Expected
Japan’s economic outlook added to global market concerns. Preliminary government data showed the economy shrank by 0.2% in the March quarter, marking its first contraction in a year. On an annualized basis, GDP fell 0.7%, significantly worse than the 0.2% drop forecasted by Reuters, primarily due to a sharp decline in exports.
Putin Snubs Ukraine Talks; Trump Insists on Personal Role
The geopolitical situation escalated as Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a lower-level delegation to the peace talks in Turkey, declining a face-to-face meeting with Zelenskiy. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy responded by sending his defense minister to lead the delegation. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said there would be “no movement” unless he personally met with Putin.
Trump Stirs Middle East Tensions, Reveals Progress with Iran
President Trump also made waves during his Gulf tour by expressing intentions to take over the Gaza Strip and “make it a freedom zone.” He further stated that the U.S. was close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, saying Tehran had “sort of” agreed to the terms. “We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace,” Trump said, according to an AFP pool report.
Powell Flags Structural Economic Challenges
At a policy conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that long-term interest rates could remain elevated due to structural changes in the economy and policy uncertainty. “More frequent and persistent supply shocks are a significant challenge for both the economy and central banks,” Powell said.
Global and Domestic Markets Close Higher
Gold June futures settled at $3,226.60 per troy ounce, up 1.20%, while silver July futures ended at $32.68, up 0.73%. In Indian markets, gold closed at ₹93,169 per 10 grams and silver at ₹95,915 per kg, both marking gains. The recovery followed earlier declines driven by U.S.-China trade optimism and Iran deal hopes, but prices rebounded on mixed U.S. data and a weaker dollar.
U.S. Data Supports Precious Metals Recovery
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.5% month-on-month, contrasting expectations of a 0.3% rise. Better-than-expected U.S. retail sales, a weaker dollar index, and falling U.S. 10-year bond yields also supported gold and silver prices.
Market Outlook from Prithvi Finmart
Manoj Kumar Jain, Director at Prithvi Finmart, commented on the short-term trend:
“We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile in today’s session amid volatility in the dollar index and US inflation expectations data; gold prices could hold its key support level of $3,140 per troy ounce and silver prices could also hold $31.40 per troy ounce levels.”
He added, “Gold has support at $3,200–3,174 and resistance at $3,250–3,280 per troy ounce, while silver has support at $32.40–32.10 and resistance at $33.00–33.30. We suggest buying silver around 95,500 with a stop loss of 95,000 for a target of 96,650.”
Currency Market Volatility Likely
On the rupee, Jain noted:
“We expect the rupee to remain volatile in today’s session amid dollar index fluctuations and global financial market cues. The pair could trade in the range of 85.0600–86.1500.”
“As per the daily technical chart, support is at 85.3500–85.0600 and resistance is at 85.8000–86.1500. The pair is trading above its support level of 85.0600 and is expected to stay in the 85.0600–86.1500 range today.”
Technical Levels from Kedia Commodity
According to Kedia Commodity, gold saw short covering with a 6.64% drop in open interest to 11,079, as prices rose ₹904.
Gold support lies at ₹91,555 with further downside to ₹89,945, while resistance is at ₹94,110. A breakout could push it to ₹95,055.
Silver is showing fresh buying with a 1.5% rise in open interest to 20,526. Support is at ₹94,410 and ₹92,910; resistance lies at ₹96,800, with potential to test ₹97,690.
IIDM Levels Suggest Upside Above $3,260
IIDM’s daily update suggests that gold faces resistance at $3,260, above which an upward move toward $3,300–3,330 is likely. Strong support remains at $3,200, and a break below this could lead to a further dip to $3,150–3,100.
JM Financial Gold and Silver Forecast for the Day
Nirmal Bang Prediction for Gold and Silver Prices
Geojit Group Outlook for gold silver today
SMC Global outlook for Today Gold and Silver
Motilal Oswal Group Gold Price Prediction
Big Events of The Week
Monday, May 12, 2025
07:55 PM – US – Fed Kugler Speech
11:30 PM – US – Monthly Budget Statement (April)
Tuesday, May 13, 2025
06:00 PM – US – Core Inflation Rate MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Inflation Rate MoM (April)
Wednesday, May 14, 2025
02:45 PM – US – Fed Waller Speech
06:40 PM – US – Fed Jefferson Speech
Thursday, May 15, 2025
02:30 PM – Eurozone – GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Estimate (Q1)
06:00 PM – US – Retail Sales MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Core PPI MoM (April)
06:00 PM – US – Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
06:10 PM – US – Fed Chair Powell Speech
06:45 PM – US – Industrial Production MoM (April)
Friday, May 16, 2025
05:20 AM – Japan – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Preliminary (Q1)
07:30 PM – US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (May)
Other Major Events This Week
China–US Trade Talks
President Trump’s Visit to the Middle East
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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of industry experts. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you consult a financial advisor. The team at Gold Price Today does not engage in personal buying, selling, or trading of gold or silver on exchanges. We are not responsible for any gains or losses incurred based on the information presented here.
