Federal Reserve, US China Deal, US-EU Trade Deal: This week is set to be pivotal for financial markets, with two major events in focus — the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting on July 30 and the looming August 1 deadline for President Donald Trump’s tariff decisions. Gold and silver prices are currently trading flat, awaiting cues from the Fed, while global markets remain watchful of progress in U.S.-China trade talks.
U.S., EU Reach Eleventh-Hour Deal to Avert Trade War
The United States and European Union have struck a critical trade deal that imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles. The agreement has helped prevent a potentially damaging trade war that could have shaken the global economy.
The deal was finalized just ahead of Friday’s deadline for Trump’s proposed tariff hike and received praise from European leaders. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni both hailed the agreement as “sustainable.”
U.S.-China Talks Resume in Stockholm Ahead of August Deadline
Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials are meeting in Stockholm this week to negotiate an extension of the ongoing tariff truce. Led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, this is the third round of talks in less than three months.
The two countries are facing an August 12 deadline to reach a comprehensive deal, after having agreed to temporary truces in May and June. While no major breakthrough is expected, analysts anticipate another 90-day extension is likely.
Key topics include the longevity of the current truce, U.S. concerns over Chinese imports of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil, and trade-linked fentanyl restrictions.
Geopolitical Tensions Rise: Ukraine Targets St. Petersburg
In another development, Ukrainian drones struck targets near St. Petersburg during Russia’s scaled-down Navy Day celebrations. The city’s airport was closed for five hours, and its naval parade was canceled due to heightened security risks.
Precious Metals Outlook: Volatility Ahead
Manoj Kumar Jain, Prithvi Finmart, noted,
“Gold and silver extended losses last week as the dollar index rebounded ahead of the Fed policy meeting, triggering profit-booking. The U.S.-Japan trade deal raised hopes for a similar pact with the EU before the August 1 deadline, which also pressured precious metal prices.”
However, ongoing trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are supporting bullion at lower levels. Jain added,
“The U.S. is unlikely to strike deals with all trading partners before the August 1 deadline. Fresh tensions between Thailand and Cambodia could also support safe-haven demand.”
Outlook:
Gold is expected to remain volatile, but may hold above $3,240 per ounce on a weekly basis, while silver could stay above $36.40.
- Gold (COMEX): Support at $3,309–3,280, Resistance at $3,355–3,370
- Silver (COMEX): Support at $38.00–37.70, Resistance at $38.74–39.09
- Gold (MCX): ₹97,440–97,100 (Support), ₹98,280–98,600 (Resistance)
- Silver (MCX): ₹1,12,200–1,11,000 (Support), ₹1,14,000–1,15,115 (Resistance)
Technical Trends: Kedia Commodity Analysis
According to Kedia Commodity:
- Gold is witnessing long liquidation with open interest down 19.38% to 6,236.
- Support: ₹97,505 and ₹97,185
- Resistance: ₹98,385 (breakout could push to ₹98,945)
- Silver open interest dropped 23.98% to 15,990.
- Support: ₹1,11,770 (break below may test ₹1,10,490)
- Resistance: ₹1,15,015 (above this, next target ₹1,16,980)
Motilal Oswal Group View
SMC Global Gold and Silver View
Gold may trade in the range of 97500-98000, and Silver also trades in the range of 112600-113900, with a mixed trend. Gold prices fell
on Monday to their lowest in nearly two weeks, as a framework trade agreement between the United States and European Union
reduced appetite for safe-haven assets. The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday, imposing a
15% import tariff on most EU goods – half the threatened rate – and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for
almost a third of global trade. he agreement mirrors key parts of the framework accord reached by the U.S. with Japan.
Big Events of the Week: July 28 – August 1, 2025
United States
Monday, July 28
• 08:00 PM – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)
Tuesday, July 29
• 06:30 PM – House Price Index (May)
• 07:30 PM – JOLTs Job Openings (June)
• 07:30 PM – CB Consumer Confidence (July)
Wednesday, July 30
• 05:45 PM – ADP Employment Change (July)
• 06:00 PM – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Advance (Q2)
• 06:00 PM – GDP Price Index QoQ Advance (Q2)
• 06:00 PM – Core PCE Prices QoQ Advance (Q2)
• 11:30 PM – Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
• 12:00 AM – Federal Reserve Press Conference
Thursday, July 31
• 06:00 PM – Core PCE Price Index MoM (June)
• 06:00 PM – Personal Income MoM (June)
• 06:00 PM – Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending July 26)
Friday, August 1
• Trump Tariff Deadline Ends
• 06:00 PM – Non-Farm Payrolls (July)
• 06:00 PM – Unemployment Rate (July)
• 06:00 PM – Private Non-Farm Payrolls (July)
• 07:30 PM – ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)
• 07:30 PM – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)
Euro Area
Wednesday, July 30
• 02:30 PM – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Estimate (Q2)
• 02:30 PM – GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Estimate (Q2)
Friday, August 1
• 02:30 PM – Inflation Rate YoY Flash Estimate (July)
Japan
Thursday, July 31
• 08:30 AM – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
Other Major Developments to Watch
• Possible U.S.–EU Tariff Agreement
• Ongoing Israel–Hamas Tensions
• Russia–Ukraine Conflict Updates
• President Trump’s Statements on Trade and Tariffs
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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and reflects the views of industry experts. Before making any investment decisions, it is recommended that you consult a financial advisor. The team at Gold Price Today does not engage in personal buying, selling, or trading of gold or silver on exchanges. We are not responsible for any gains or losses incurred based on the information presented here.
