Bullion Trends 2026: Marking a critical turning point for India’s gemstone and jewellery sector, the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) has officially released its comprehensive 2026 half-yearly market review. Navigating a turbulent six months defined by historic price peaks, subsequent market corrections, and mounting taxation challenges, the apex body has urgently called for balanced government policies and consumer-friendly structural reforms to sustain the industry. As escalating customs duties, geopolitical tensions, and shifting consumer design preferences reshape the landscape, the GJC emphasizes that strategic interventions—particularly rationalizing the GST burden and optimizing the Gold Monetisation Scheme—will be absolutely pivotal in stabilizing retail demand ahead of the crucial upcoming festive and wedding seasons.
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Unprecedented Price Volatility and Market Corrections
The first half of 2026 witnessed extraordinary fluctuations in both gold and silver prices, altering traditional investment and buying patterns:
- Gold Price Matrix: Domestic gold surged to a historic peak of Rs 1,70,480 per 10 grams in January 2026, before undergoing a natural market correction to around Rs 1,42,800 per 10 grams by late June 2026.
- Silver Price Breakthrough: Silver experienced a dramatic, unprecedented rally, crossing the monumental Rs 4 lakh mark to peak at Rs 4,02,490 per kilogram in January 2026. It subsequently eased to the Rs 2,25,940 per kilogram range by late June 2026.
While these record-high figures drove macro investors toward bullion as a reliable safe-haven asset, the severe affordability pressures simultaneously softened retail consumer demand across the country.
Policy Headwinds and the Push for Structural Reforms
Domestic retail operations faced compounded complexities due to recent fiscal policy changes. The customs duty hike announced in May 2026 immediately inflated domestic prices, directly impacting retail sales margins already strained by heavy compliance mandates and the existing GST burden.
In response, the GJC is actively advocating for long-term policy stabilization, placing an analytical focus on the underutilized Gold Monetization Scheme. The Council notes that a robust overhaul of this scheme is essential to unlock the vast reserves of idle household gold, reduce India’s heavy national import dependency, and fortify the domestic supply chain.
Global Catalysts and Macroeconomic Drivers
The bullion market’s volatile trajectory throughout 2026 remains tethered to a combination of international geopolitical and economic factors:
- Geopolitical Flares: Active conflicts in the Middle East and broader global instability consistently fueled early volatility and safe-haven buying.
- Currency Pressures: The steady depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar added structural upward pressure on domestic retail pricing.
- Institutional Demand: Persistent global inflationary trends and aggressive diversification by central banks into gold reserves strongly reinforced the metal’s baseline appeal.
Leadership Insights: Market Resilience & Consumer Adaptation
“The correction in bullion prices during late June reflects a natural adjustment after extraordinary highs. Gold futures settled around Rs 1,42,800 per 10 grams, while silver eased to the Rs 2,25,990 per kg range after crossing Rs 4,00,000 earlier this year. These shifts are driven by profit-taking, a stronger US dollar index, and expectations of prolonged high interest rates globally. Global sentiment has also shifted as safe-haven demand eased after recent geopolitical panic cooled. While futures saw a meaningful drop, retail prices have remained elevated, with 24K gold continuing to trade around Rs 14,250–Rs 14,400 per gram through late June this year. This shows the market is adjusting rather than collapsing. Looking ahead, the upcoming festive season and the peak wedding calendar in the second half of the year are expected to provide strong support to jewellery demand, particularly in lightweight categories. These cultural drivers, combined with India’s deep emotional connect with gold, will ensure that despite volatility, the market remains resilient.” — Rajesh Rokde, Chairman, GJC
“Gold remains an integral part of Indian households, but affordability pressures are real. The next six months will depend heavily on geopolitical stability and government policy, particularly in the context of customs duty and taxation. Excessive duties risk encouraging unofficial channels, which hurts consumers and weakens the trade. We urge policymakers to balance revenue needs with industry sustainability, ensuring that reforms strengthen rather than strain the sector. At the same time, the Gold Monetisation Scheme offers a long-term solution by mobilising idle household gold, reducing import dependency, and reinforcing India’s economic resilience. Consumers are adapting with lightweight jewellery designs, while investors continue to view gold as a safe-haven. The industry stands ready to collaborate with the government so that national interest, consumer welfare, and market stability move forward together.” — Avinash Gupta, Vice Chairman, GJC
H2 2026 Outlook: Consolidation and Seasonal Hopes
Heading into the latter half of 2026, the GJC projects that bullion prices will maintain a volatile posture, likely undergoing a period of consolidation following late June’s downward corrections. While overall consumer jewellery demand may initially remain subdued due to persistent pricing realities, the peak cultural wedding calendar and festive buying are expected to spark a vital sales revival. This demand will likely center on contemporary, lightweight jewellery lines designed to accommodate consumer budgets. Moving forward, the trade remains highly focused on awaiting formal clarity regarding potential tax adjustments and government reforms to the Gold Monetization Scheme.
About GJC
The All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) is a national trade council established with the objective of addressing the interests, growth, and development of the Indian gems and jewellery industry through a comprehensive and inclusive approach. As a self-regulated apex industry body, GJC has, for over two decades, served as a bridge between the Government and the trade while undertaking various initiatives for the advancement, formalization, and protection of the industry.
FAQ’s
1. What are the key findings of the GJC’s 2026 half-year market review?
The GJC reported that India’s gem and jewellery industry experienced significant price volatility during the first half of 2026, driven by record-high bullion prices, market corrections, customs duty changes, and global economic uncertainty. It believes policy reforms will be crucial to sustaining demand in the second half of the year.
2. Why is GJC calling for GST and Gold Monetisation Scheme reforms?
The Council argues that rationalising GST and strengthening the Gold Monetisation Scheme would reduce pressure on consumers, mobilise idle household gold, lower India’s dependence on imports, improve domestic supply, and support long-term growth of the jewellery industry.
3. What factors influenced gold and silver prices during the first half of 2026?
According to GJC, bullion prices were influenced by geopolitical tensions, a weaker Indian rupee, persistent global inflation, central bank gold purchases, higher customs duties, and expectations of prolonged high interest rates, leading to both record highs and subsequent market corrections.
4. What is GJC’s outlook for the jewellery industry in the second half of 2026?
GJC expects bullion prices to remain volatile but believes the festive season and India’s wedding calendar will revive jewellery demand. Consumer interest is likely to focus on lightweight and contemporary jewellery, while the industry awaits further government policy announcements.
5. What is the role of the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC)?
The All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) is India’s apex trade body representing the domestic gems and jewellery industry. It works closely with the government and industry stakeholders to promote trade, advocate policy reforms, improve compliance, strengthen consumer confidence, and support the sector’s sustainable growth.
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