Akshaya Tritiya 2024 Outlook, Gold Price 2024, Silver Price 2024: The new financial Year is starting with an auspicious occasion i.e. Akshaya Tritiya which as per the Indian culture is considered to be a “Shubh Divas” for investments, especially “gold and silver”. Our experts will tell you how gold and silver will perform in 2024. Before we jump into gold and silver’s performance it is important to see what has led to a sharp rally in both?
‘This Akshaya Tritiya seems like an opportune time to load up your purchase as the macroeconomic backdrop and risk-reward dynamics seem to favor gold and the downside looks limited. Buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya is considered auspicious due to several reasons. Firstly, it is believed that gold symbolizes wealth, prosperity, and good fortune. Secondly, the festival is associated with the harvest season and the start of new beginnings, making it an ideal time to invest in assets’ according to Ghazal Jain, Fund Manager- Alternate Investments, Quantum AMC. Jain expect ”FED to have limited means to continue their hawkish stand to save economy from breaking.” In next year Akshaya Tritiya is on 10 May 2024, Friday.
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According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services research few important triggers which are supporting the market are
1. Geo-political tensions – Russia / Ukraine, China / Taiwan, and other geopolitical triggers keeps the market jittery.
- Russian / Ukraine concerns set a positive tone for safe haven assets, and to top up, Finland was granted admission in NATO, which doubled their borders and increased threat for Russia increasing uncertainties.
- One more uncertainty that “probably” was short lived is the US banking concerns, wherein SVB and Credit Suisse led fiasco created panic in the market and increased gold and silver’s safe haven appeal.
MOFSL Research report on gold and silver writes ”gold’s demand seldom disappoints the market, however things are little different on domestic front this time around as we have seen some slowdown in the physical market, primarily amidst recent changes in customs duty to 15% (including Cess) for gold last year and for silver this year. India in 2021 imported 1050 tonnes gold, in 2022 it imported 705 tonnes of gold, on other hand, silver import number surprised everyone in 2022, which were to the tune of 9500 tonnes.
Naveen KR, Senior Director, Investment Products, Windmill Capital & smallcase manager, said “Gold is expected to yield good returns in FY24 as well. Inflation is coming off highs and RBI’s pause in the last policy clearly indicates their focus is on growth. While FIIs buying into the Equity markets in the past few sessions is a boost for Equity markets, the volatility in the equity markets will keep precious metals an attractive space to park funds.”
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Tailwind like any sign from Fed or major central bank regards to change in their hawkish stance or a pause in rate hikes, increase in geo-political uncertainties, rise in fear regarding global growth slowdown and fall in Dollar index and US bond yields could be positive for prices. Gold has performed well during events like pandemic or Russia-Ukraine war; however, this rally is different, as it is on anticipation of a rate hike cycle change and anytime that happens we see a good and a sustained jump in safe havens.
According to MOFSL Reasearch Report on gold and silver “fundamentals for silver (precious + industrial metal) looks better, and could outperform gold over a medium term period. We continue to maintain a positive stance for both the metals and recommend buying on dips, with target towards of Rs.63,000 for gold and Rs.85,000 for silver on domestic front and $2100 for gold and $29 for Silver on Comex.”
Commodity Market Expert Sugandha Sachdeva said “for next Akshaya Tritiya, prices are expected to scale towards 63500 for gold and 86000 for silver.
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Naveen KR said ”In the Indian context, gold has doubled over the past 10 years on an absolute basis, while it has managed to deliver compounded returns of 7.5%. In USD terms too, gold has been a star performer, even if one goes back to the 1970s. It has delivered returns close to 10% on average, for almost 50 years. The difference between gold returns in INR and USD is simply the currency exchange fluctuations.”
Pritam Patnaik, Head – Commodities, HNI & NRI Acquisitions at Axis Securities said ”last year, Gold rallied close to 14.3%, in line with our projected price trend. Off-late, Gold prices have rallied as the market widely anticipates that we are in the last legs of arguably the longest, if not the most painful, interest rate hike cycles. If one were to review the historical reaction of extended periods of rate hikes cycles, since 1961, the Fed has attempted nine such full cycles of rate hikes, out of which eight ended up in a recession.
Patnaik said ”gold prices seem to correct at the time of the actual announcement of the rate hikes but subsequently witness significant rallies as either the intensity of the rate hike starts to wane or is suspended altogether. The possibility of an impending recession, owing to extended periods of high-interest rates, failing banks, and the collapsing dollar index, has further added to the safe haven appeal of Gold, reflected in the gold prices. These factors could propel Gold towards Rs.65000/- in the medium to long term. In the near term, the central bank’s fight against the sticky inflation still wages on.”
”Gold’s long-term bullish outlook is still very much intact. And as soon as markets settle in, when the Fed pauses, gold will rally. We see gold taking base of 54000 to 55000 and expect gold in rang of 63000 to 66000 by Akshaya Tritiya 2024” according to Chintan Mehta CEO Abans Group.
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Manish Chowdhury Head of Research Stoxbox says “though some intermittent volatility cannot be ruled out as we move ahead, we believe that gold would continue its run and would be higher on Akshaya Tritiya of 2024 from the current levels. The next six-eight months looks more positive for gold as reasonably high inflation, deteriorating global macroeconomic outlook and expectations of weaker US Dollar should drive up the demand for safe haven assets such as gold by at least 10% in the medium term. On the back of rise in gold prices and increased industrial use, the outlook for silver also looks positive.”
Narinder Wadhwa President CPAI said ”In general, we are optimistic about the outlook for gold and silver over the next year. This is due in part to ongoing concerns about inflation and the potential for further economic disruptions. Additionally, central banks around the world will start tapering interest rates later this year, which can make gold and silver more attractive investments.”
Chintan Haria, Head – Investment Strategy, ICICI, Prudential AMC said ‘this Akshaya Tritiya, consider investing in the yellow metal through Gold ETF. An investor can start investing with an amount as low as Rs 53 (one unit of ICICI Prudential Gold ETF). Investing in Gold ETFs will not only bring diversification to your portfolio but also offer easy liquidity, an aspect which physical gold does not offer. Overall, investing in Gold ETF has the potential to add shine to your portfolio. An investor can consider allocating upto 10% of the portfolio towards Gold ETFs.”
Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. This is the opinion of the expert. If you make any investment, first take the advice of your financial advisor. Individuals associated with Gold Price Today do not personally buy, sell or trade in gold/silver.