Gold, silver and crude oil markets ended the week amid heightened volatility, with precious metals recovering from recent corrective phases while crude oil pulled back sharply from its multi-week highs. Enrich Money expects the Federal Reserve’s hawkish dot plot, rather than the rate hike itself, to remain a key driver for precious metals. Gold and silver are likely to stay sensitive to Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and inflation data, while geopolitical and fiscal concerns could provide intermittent safe-haven support. Silver may also benefit from its structural supply deficit if monetary conditions become more favourable and industrial demand remains firm.
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Enrich Money Gold Silver Outlook
According to Enrich Money, Financial Services (SEBI RA Regn.: INH000019974)
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish dot plot, rather than the rate hike itself, is likely to remain the dominant driver for precious metals. Gold and silver are expected to remain highly sensitive to movements in Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and inflation data, as well as further signals on the pace and timing of additional tightening.
At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and fiscal concerns could provide intermittent safe-haven support, while silver’s structural supply deficit may offer additional support if monetary conditions become more favorable and industrial demand remains firm.
Crude oil’s outlook will remain closely tied to the durability of Middle East supply disruptions and risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Further escalation could push oil prices higher, adding to inflationary pressures and potentially reinforcing expectations for a tighter monetary-policy stance. Conversely, the restoration of disrupted supply or signs of diplomatic progress could erode the geopolitical premium and trigger further profit-taking.
Overall, with the Federal Reserve signaling a higher-for-longer approach and geopolitical risks remaining elevated, volatility across the commodity complex is likely to remain high in the weeks ahead.
COMEX Gold: COMEX Gold closed the week firmer at 4,424.9 dollars per ounce, gaining 0.36% and rebounding from the 4,300-dollar zone after a volatile three-week correction from the 4,530-dollar highs. Both the weekly and daily RSI have moved back above the 50 mark, pointing to a tentative improvement in short-term momentum.
On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 4,470–4,500 dollars, followed by the next resistance zone at 4,570–4,600 dollars. A sustained close above 4,500 dollars would be needed to revive the broader uptrend.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 4,300–4,340 dollars, followed by 4,170–4,200 dollars. A decisive break below 4,300 dollars could deepen the current correction. Overall, gold is attempting to stabilise after its recent pullback, with the broader technical structure remaining constructive as long as prices hold above 4,300 dollars.
MCX Gold: MCX Gold closed the week firmer at 1,54,381 rupees per 10 grams, gaining 1.07% and rebounding from the 1,50,000-rupee zone after a period of consolidation. The weekly RSI has climbed to 55, while the daily RSI at 53 points to improving short-term momentum.
On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 1,54,000–1,54,700 rupees, followed by the next resistance zone at 1,56,300–1,57,000 rupees.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1,50,000–1,50,700 rupees, followed by 1,47,300–1,48,000 rupees. A decisive break below 1,50,000 rupees could deepen the current pullback. Overall, MCX Gold is stabilising after its recent consolidation, with the broader bullish structure remaining intact as long as prices hold above 1,50,000 rupees.
COMEX Silver: COMEX Silver closed the week higher at 67.15 dollars per ounce, gaining 3.01% and rebounding from the 63.50-dollar zone after a sharp corrective decline. The weekly RSI has climbed back to 50, moving above the midline, while the daily RSI at 55.06 points to improving short-term momentum.
On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 68.00–68.50 dollars, followed by the next resistance zone at 70.00–70.50 dollars. A sustained move above 72.00 dollars would be required to revive the broader uptrend.
On the downside, a break below 66.00 dollars could extend the current correction toward the 63.50–64.00 dollar support zone, followed by the next support at 61.50–62.00 dollars.
Overall, silver has recovered from its recent dip, with the broader technical structure remaining constructive as long as prices hold above 66.00 dollars.
MCX Silver: MCX Silver closed the week higher at 2,41,603 rupees per kilogram, gaining 2.82% and rebounding from the 2,30,000-rupee zone after a choppy multi-week consolidation. The weekly RSI has firmed to 52, moving back above the midline, while the daily RSI at 56 points to improving short-term momentum.
On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 2,43,000–2,44,000 rupees, followed by the next resistance zone at 2,49,000–2,50,000 rupees. A sustained close above 2,44,000 rupees would be required to revive the broader uptrend.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 2,35,000–2,36,000 rupees, followed by 2,29,000–2,30,000 rupees. A decisive break below 2,35,000 rupees could stall the current recovery and expose the metal to further downside.
Overall, silver has turned more constructive after finding support near recent lows, with the near-term bias remaining favourable as long as prices hold above 2,40,000 rupees.
USD/INR: USD/INR closed the week higher at 95.86, gaining 0.34% and extending its recovery for a second consecutive week, with the pair moving closer to the 96.00 zone. The weekly RSI remains broadly steady near 59, while the daily RSI has climbed to 61, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum for the dollar against the rupee.
On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 96.00–96.10, followed by the next resistance zone at 96.40–96.50. A sustained close above 96.00 could open the way toward these higher levels.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 95.70–95.80, followed by 95.40–95.50. A decisive break below 95.60 could signal that the dollar’s recent advance is losing momentum.
Overall, the pair continues to trend higher following its recent breakout, with the near-term bias remaining constructive as long as USD/INR holds above 95.60.
FAQ’s
1. What factors are expected to influence gold and silver prices?
Federal Reserve policy signals, Treasury yields, movements in the U.S. dollar and inflation data are expected to remain important drivers for gold and silver. Geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal concerns and silver’s structural supply deficit could also influence market direction.
2. What are the key technical levels for COMEX Gold?
COMEX Gold has immediate resistance at 4,470–4,500 dollars per ounce, followed by 4,570–4,600 dollars. Support is placed at 4,300–4,340 dollars, followed by 4,170–4,200 dollars. A sustained close above 4,500 dollars could support a broader recovery, while a break below 4,300 dollars could deepen the correction.
3. Which levels are important for MCX Gold?
MCX Gold has immediate resistance at 1,54,000–1,54,700 rupees per 10 grams, followed by 1,56,300–1,57,000 rupees. Key support is located at 1,50,000–1,50,700 rupees, followed by 1,47,300–1,48,000 rupees. The broader structure remains constructive while prices hold above 1,50,000 rupees.
4. How could geopolitical developments affect crude oil prices?
Further disruption to Middle East supplies or increased risks around the Strait of Hormuz could push crude oil prices higher and add to inflationary pressures. Conversely, restoration of supply or diplomatic progress could reduce the geopolitical premium and encourage further profit-taking in crude oil.
5. What is the current technical outlook for USD/INR?
USD/INR closed at 95.86, gaining 0.34% for the week. Resistance is positioned at 96.00–96.10, followed by 96.40–96.50, while support stands at 95.70–95.80 and 95.40–95.50. The near-term structure remains constructive as long as the pair holds above 95.60.
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